A new study out of UC Riverside projects an increase in rain and snow in California due to climate change, reported Matt Smith on Seeker.com. Anthropogenic impacts on climate are expected to produce a chronic El Niño-like weather pattern off the Pacific coast of the U.S., leading to about 12 percent more rain and snow by 2100.
The study used a newer computer model and relied on other models that have a better record of simulating precipitation and the effects of an El Niño on the state. El Niño, the cyclical warming of the Pacific Ocean near Earth's equator, typically produces warmer temperatures across much of the United States and more rainfall over California.
Meanwhile, an article by Joshua Emerson Smith in the San Diego Union-Tribune presented less-welcome climate change news. It concluded that wildfires are expected to get longer and more intense in California due to climate change.
“We will need some very new approaches to deal with both the increasing hazard of fire and our increasing exposure to it,” said Max Moritz, UC Cooperative Extension specialist in fire ecology and management at UC Berkeley's College of Natural Resources. “The situation we have created is dangerous, and without a major shift in perspective it will only get worse.”
There are ways to limit the ignition of the wildfires. The article said about 95 percent of all wildfires are caused by people, so it's important to be aware of fire-safe practices pertaining to home maintenance, campfires, target shooting, vehicle use and other outdoor activities.
Here are a few examples of fire-safe best practices:
- Mow lawns in the morning before it gets too hot. Never mow when it is windy or extremely dry. Avoid rocks when mowing; metal blades can cause sparks when they hit rocks.
- Don't drive a vehicle on dry grass or brush. Don't allow vehicle brakes to wear thin, as thin brakes can cause sparks. Carry a fire extinguisher in the car.
- Maintain 100 feet of defensible space around homes in fire-prone areas. UC ANR experts recommend a five-foot zone immediately adjacent to the home be completely devoid of plants and anything combustible.
Wildfires used to be rare in the Great Plains, but that is no longer the case. A new study shows the average number of large fires grew from about 33 per year in 1985 to 117 per year in 2014, reported Chris Mooney in the Washington Post.
The study's lead author, Victoria Donovan of the University of Nebraska, Lincoln, said the increasing number of wildfires is consistent with climate change and an incursion of more invasive plant species that could be providing fuel.
UC Cooperative Extension specialist Max Moritz said the study's results align with his observations. However, he added that he suspects that they reflect not so much human-caused climate change, but rather, changing human behavior. Humans have been found to be overwhelmingly responsible for lighting U.S. wildfires over the past 20 years, according to research he cited. But these facts should not downplay the importance of dealing with anthropogenic climate change.
"It does highlight the importance of human ignitions and where/how we build our communities on the landscape," Moritz said. "Wildfire is not going away anytime soon. We must learn, as a society, to coexist with wildfire."
Even though there has been a deficit of fire in California forests for decades, their future is not hopeless, said UC Berkeley fire science professor and UC Agriculture and Natural Resources researcher Scott Stephens in an interview with Craig Miller on KQED Science.
"The next 25 to 30 years are paramount. If you begin to do restoration, reduce density, make forests more variable in pattern, and less fuel, when you have episodes of drought and fire, it's going to be fine. The forests have been doing this for millennia. It's going to be fine," Stephens said.
However, under current conditions, in which fires have been regularly suppressed, the situation is dire.
"The forests used to burn every 12 to 15 years, but most places haven't been touched for 50 to 100 years. Today we have areas with 300 or 400 trees per acre, where you used to have 50 to 80," he said.
Even though, Stephens said he is an optimist. "There's still opportunity today to do restoration, so that when it does get warmer and warmer, as projected, the forests will be able to deal with that, deal with insects and disease and keep themselves intact."
Burning chaparral, tall grass and timber in a rugged and remote part of Monterey County are posing serious challenges to firefighters battling the Soberanes Wildfire in Monterey County, reported Ed Joyce on Capital Public Radio. Joyce spoke to UC Agriculture and Natural Resources researcher Scott Stephens about the factors driving the growing fire.
"Since it's so remote, in terms of road access, just difficult terrain in general - very steep slopes - you get a fire in there like it is right now, it really is a difficult conundrum for managers," Stephens said. Stephens is a UC Berkeley professor of fire science and an Agricultural Experiment Station researcher who also serves as co-director of the Center for Fire Research and Outreach.
"I don't think the fire managers in that kind of terrain can do more than actually look at it strategically and figure out where they can make a stand and actually try to keep that fire from causing harm to human facilities. But other than that, it's a very difficult fire to access, very dangerous for firefighters," Stephens said in the interview with Joyce.
Climate change has had an impact on the California fire season since the beginning or mid-1980s, said UC Agriculture and Natural Resources (UC ANR) researcher Scott Stephens, during a interview on Capitol Public Radio with Ed Joyce. Stephens is a professor at UC Berkeley, a UC ANR Agricultural Experiment Station researcher and co-director of the UC Center for Fire Research and Outreach.
“The amount of snow left on the ground is decreasing because it is melting earlier,” Stephens said. "This creates a longer period of time when wildfires can ignite."
Also the density of trees in the state's forests has increased dramatically.
“We've gone from about 60 to 100 trees per acre to places we have today with 400 or 500 trees per acre, a massive change that has increased their vulnerability to fire, drought and insects,” Stephens said.
Stephens spoke about how the overly dense forest can be addressed by land managers.
"Thinning is sometimes controversial," he said. "It's very easy to think that you're going to remove some trees to reduce the community of crowns, but if you're going to do a restoration treatment with fire in mind, you have to deal with the surface fuels. Also, just the culmination of mortality for decades and decades is already on the ground of the forest."
Joyce noted the astonishing number of dead trees in the Southern Sierra, which the U.S. Forest Service recently pegged at 66 million.
"That's a great example of a manifestation of an unsustainable forest condition," Stephens said. "I was just down in the Southern Sierra about five days ago and I saw those landscapes of thousands of dead trees, many of them large, especially in the ecozone where we go from shrubs to forests. Those areas have been very dry."
Stephens continued: "We really are in this warming climate with more variability. So, it's on us. . . . We can't just keep kicking the can down the road. We're running out of time."