Great article out of the ubiquitous Wall Street Journal transcribing an interview with Tadashi Yanai, the billionaire behind the speciality clothing manufacturer Fast Retailing Co., who also operates the more than 1,700 Uniqlo stores in Asia and not incidentally oversees tremendous sales over the Web as well. This guy is very successful and we can assume he has a good idea of what's up.
Why I am writing about clothing retailers on this on an ostensibly berry science oriented blog? Here's why. Mr. Yanai refers to the meaning of data, and what to do with it which as my readers know is a pretty big theme here. Data is not the end all for acquisition of knowledge; one actually needs to apply real insight, both from education and experience, to make it work.
Here's what this very successful businessman has to say about it:
"Data would never substitute the merchant. How do you interpret the data? That's the merchant's skill set. You need to uncover the insight that is buried in the data and the merchants need to uncover it. Even if you employ artificial intelligence to help you, the numbers [don't tell] the future."
There you have it. Guess what all, you can't farm from just a computer, you actually need to know the meaning of the numbers [and that takes hard work].
As we creep towards strawberry planting season on the Central Coast, it is always good to review where we stand currently on nursery cold conditioning, and with this in mind, think about adjustments to the post harvest supplementary chill based on what sort of winter we might be expecting.
Those of you who know me understand my faith in hedging my bets and planning for contingencies. I favor decisions with a high probability of success and decent outcomes over swing for the fences with blow your socks off results but missing and failing most of the time. Short supplemental chill times with early planting dates to get the beat on the competition are not my thing since this strategy puts good plant vigor at risk, especially if this 2017-18 winter is warm.
Chill accumulation for this year looks good at the nurseries up at MacDoel. Using Lassen Canyon Nursery's chill accumulation chart (also appreciate the comps to previous years- very useful), shows that, after a warm start in September, hours have really ramped up and currently as of October 5 we are at 337 total hours according to my Utah model calculations (which subtracts chill during warm weather episodes, and discounts temperatures under freezing - look elsewhere on this blog for how I am doing this). That compares very well with previous years, and is in fact ahead of many of them.
Further, looking forward to what sort of winter we are to expect, let's go to the NOAA weather maps. Quite simply, for all of our strawberry production areas, it is as of now 40% probable that we get temperatures above normal this winter (being December, January and February). This is up from 33% a few weeks ago, so I am sensing a trend which seems to confirm where we are headed.
In conclusion, with solid field chill already in the can but a good probability of a warmer than normal winter in the offing, I would again this year favor just a little bit more supplemental chill than customary.
Nobody can say we shouldn't have seen this coming.
In the current NAFTA renegotiation, the thriving berry industry (88,000 acres representing a fivefold increase in one decade to 1.26 billion dollars in sales) of central Mexico has come into focus as an unfair competitor to US growers, enjoying cheap labor, state subsidies and year round growing conditions.
Interesting to see also the differences in attitude on this question between large growers, who operate in all three NAFTA signatories, and small growers who produce only domestically.
Good article, paywall protected though.
Attached is the latest iteration of the grower guidelines a number of us at UC Cooperative Extension have written and have had published by the California Strawberry Commission.
Super timely since planting is right around the corner, this piece on anthracnose in strawberry caused by the pathogen Colletotrichum , was written by myself, Steven Koike and Oleg Daugovish. It was then reviewed by our strawberry science colleagues Gerald Holmes, Kelly Ivors and Jenny Broome. Translation into Spanish (attached below) done by the Commission's Ariel Zajdband into pitch perfect Spanish in a single hour. The Commission's Joy Jacobs kept the project moving and she and Mercy Olmstead brought it over the finish line.
I'm really very proud of this team effort to put the latest settled science on a serious disease into the hands of growers, PCA's and industry people. I am privileged to work with such a great team of people!
This is interesting. In the midst of all this heat and dry I found a big run of anthracnose infected fruit, and the grower shared with me that something like 5 to 10% of his crop has the disease currently. For those who think the grower or I might be confused about this, have a look at the pictures below taken Monday early morning.
So what I did was contact Steve Koike and ask him, that seemed like a smart thing to do. He answered and said that at some point there must have been enough moisture to activate the spores. It does boil down to the "disease triangle" and each of the three requirements must be in place. We have the host (strawberries), the pathogen (Colletotrichum) and now all we need to do is have the right condition (a lot of moisture). Checking around with other growers in that area, it does seem that very close to the coast the dews over the past week were really heavy, in one case so much that one manager had to delay a spray. So the third requirement has been fulfilled after all.
Since I was able to surveil a number of fields in both Santa Cruz and Monterey counties these past few days on a soil sampling run, I found that sure enough even a little further inland the disease to is nowhere to be found. It truly does depend on the right conditions.