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Economic models show that the U.S. will benefit economically from a free trade agreement (FTA), but Mexico is likely to benefit more. The creation of an FTA will result in the movement of labor and capital across sectors in both economies. The benefits to Mexico will be augmented if significant economic development occurs as a result of the agreement. The FTA is likely to cause a reduction or change in the mix of California horticultural products directly competitive with Mexico. (See sidebar, p. 7.) Market opportunities are expected to develop for other products.

Abstract Not Available – First paragraph follows: While the accompanying article discusses potential free-trade impacts on agriculture as a whole, it does not focus on individual industries. Within each agricultural sector there will be winners and losers. Much attention in California has focused on the potential losses in the domestic production of vegetables caused by increased imports of such products from Mexico. One difficulty in assessing the impact of such production and trade shifts is the lack of adequate data to permit sound analysis. Therefore, much of what is concluded is based on structural descriptions and opinions about relevant economic relationships.

The tomato processing industry has expanded more rapidly in Mexico than the fresh tomato industry. Export of tomato paste to the United States has doubled since 1986 and will increase still further when the US. tariff is eliminated under the Free Trade Agreement (FTA). This will permit Mexico to displace other suppliers to the U.S. market (such as Chile, Turkey and Taiwan). It will probably cause lower prices for U.S. producers as well.

The tomato processing industry has expanded more rapidly in Mexico than the fresh tomato industry. Export of tomato paste to the United States has doubled since 1986 and will increase still further when the US. tariff is eliminated under the Free Trade Agreement (FTA). This will permit Mexico to displace other suppliers to the U.S. market (such as Chile, Turkey and Taiwan). It will probably cause lower prices for U.S. producers as well. (Editor's note: Most tonnage statistics in this paper are in metric tons. In a few cases, U.S. tons have been used, and so designated. For conversion purposes, 1 metric ton = 2,205 lb; 1 US. ton =2,000 lb.)

Farmers in the Mexicali Valley of Baja California-North growing two specialty crops, asparagus (Asparagus officinalis) and broccoli (Brassica oleracea) hold an economic advantage over farmers growing the same two crops in the Imperial Valley of California. Potential shifts in production from the U.S. to Mexico may have an effect on the number of jobs, the private sales sector, and personal income in Imperial County.

Because pesticides may depress populations of beneficial insects as well as target pests, biological control has historically played a limited role in integrated pest management (IPM). However, recent research has shown that pesticide-resistant parasites selected in the laboratory can be established in the field and enhance IPM programs. Continuing studies indicate that a Guthion-resistant strain selected at UCB performs well in two California orchards, and could be used to colonize other walnut orchards throughout the state. Additional releases would accelerate this process. Otherwise, large-scale establishment might take 5 to 10 years. Pesticide-resistant beneficials — whether selected In the laboratory or genetically engineered — may someday play an expanded role in IPM programs and the reduction of pesticide use.

The ash borer represents a serious threat to ash and olive trees. Larvae invade trunks, and branches throughout the canopy. A single spray of chlorpyrifos applied during the moth flight season protected landscape ash from serious injury.

California poultry diets typically contain about 60% corn and 30% soybean meal even though the bulk of these ingredients have to be transported from the Midwest. Triticale is a viable alternative feedstuff for poultry because it has a substantially higher protein content than corn and reduces the amount of soybean meal needed in poultry diets. This potential California crop could save the industry a substantial portion of its current shipments of Midwest corn and soybean meal.

The California Irrigation Management Information System (CIMIS) originated in 1982. Its purposes were to provide estimates of crop water requirements as influenced by real-time weather conditions and to ensure reasonable use of limited water supplies for farming. This study documents the effects of managing on-farm irrigation practices, with and without using CIMIS information, in a Kings County walnut orchard. In this example, increased water use, increased production, and increased profits were experienced as a result of implementing CIMIS information.