Opportunities for Log Exports for California Landowners

Although the weak housing markets have continued to suppress prices for logs and stumpage for California forest landowners, there has been tremendous growth in opportunities from the export market. This has largely been driven by surges in the demand for west coast logs in China. According to the International Wood Markets Group, Inc. (http://www.woodmarkets.com), the final statistics for 2010 showed that log imports by China increased 22% by in total volume and 49% by value from 2009. This increased demand, coupled with log tarrifs in Russia, have had the effect of increasing the demand for logs from the US, Canada, New Zealand, and Australia. This trend appears to be continuing and both the Ports of Oakland and Humboldt Bay are active in log exports to China.

Total timber harvest California increased by 44 percent in 2010 compared to 2009 (http://www.boe.ca.gov/proptaxes/timbertax.htm), but was still the second lowest harvest level since the Board of Equilization kept records (see Figure 1). There are encouraging signs for upturns in Douglas-fir, pine and hem/fir prices driven by the export market. Figure 2 shows the harvest value schedules for these three species for the Northern Sierra Nevada as an example, for the past 5 years. Stumpage prices in the Northern Sierra Nevada, chosen for an illustrative example, have doubled in the past year.

Landowners are encouraged to look closely at export markets as they develop plans to sell products from their timberlands, as it may be a way to develop cash flow for products which have had suppressed prices for several years.

Figure 1. Statewide trends in public and private timber harvest in California – 1978 – 2010.

Figure 2. 5-year trends in stumpage price for the Northern Sierra Nevada.