Posts Tagged: Dan Sumner
China imports quite a bit of wine, however, very little comes from the United States. At the same time, per capita consumption of wine in China remains very low. So why are California winemakers anxious about tariffs newly imposed by China on U.S. wine? Because China's wine consumption habits are expected to change, reported UC ANR experts in an article posted on The Conversation and NPR websites.
"China is the world's fastest-growing wine market and is expected to soon become the second largest (wine market), after the U.S.," wrote UC Davis wine economist Julian M. Alsten, director of UC ANR's Agricultural Issues Center Daniel Sumner, and post-doctoral scholar Olena Sambucci.
Economists who have studied these markets project further significant growth in China's demand for wine, including premium wine imports, the article said.
"This would make getting pushed out of China especially troubling at a time when global per capita wine consumption has been declining, especially in Europe," the authors wrote.
China has threatened to impose retaliatory tariffs on American exports following President Trump's plan to impose tariffs on steel and aluminum imports. Agricultural exports are in the crosshairs, reported Thaddeus Miller in the Merced Sun-Star.
China's tariffs would first hit U.S. products such as avocados and nuts with 15 percent duties, the article says.
"It doesn't really matter which one it is, whether it's alfalfa, almonds or wherever it may go," said David Doll, UC Cooperative Extension advisor in Merced County. "They're as much political as they are anything else."
The potential tariff would have a significant impact on Merced County, where almonds are the second largest commodity valued at $578.5 million in 2016.
The back and forth trade disputes happening between the U.S. and China make trade less predictable and could lead to disruptions that impact California food and wine producers, even before potential Chinese tariffs go into effect, said Dan Sumner, director of UC Agriculture and Natural Resources' Agricultural Issues Center in an interview with Julia Mitric of Capital Public Radio.
If China hits the U.S. with a 15 percent tariff on wine, that's a problem, Sumner said.
"We may think California wine is special, but not everybody does,” Sumner said. "And if it's 15 percent more expensive than it used to be because of the tariff, there'll be a substantial reduction in how much gets sold in China."
Sumner said the proposed tariffs would likely hurt California's tree nut growers more than its wine producers because a larger proportion of almonds and pistachios are exported.
In 2016, the value of pistachios sold to China was $530 million, more than three times the value of wine exports to that country, Mitric reported.
townhall at the World Ag Expo last week with visits with farmers and tours of farmland in the San Joaquin Valley. "I need all the education I can get," Perdue said at Harris Woolf California Almonds facility in Coalinga, according to an article in the Los Angeles Times by Geoffrey Mohan.
"When he say things to Trump, Trump can hear him saying, 'Be careful about your constituency. Unless you want to see Nancy Pelosi in power, you better see to the reelections in the Central valley," Sumner said.
One of the reelections is for Rep. Devin Nunez (R-Tulare), a strong Trump supporter who chairs the House Intelligence Committee, which is investigating Russia's interference in the 2016 presidential election.
Trump has to ponder whether he wants the Nunez or some Democrat leading the committee's Russia investigation, Sumner said.
California's years-long drought is easing up, with storms delivering rain and snow that has exceeded "normal" for the state, reported Jed Kim for the Marketplace Sustainability Desk. Kim interviewed Dan Sumner, the director of the UC Agricultural Issues Center, a UC Agriculture and Natural Resources statewide program that focuses on such topics such international markets, invasive pests and diseases, and rural development.
Sumner shared a message of hope during the two-minute Marketplace clip.
"So far at least, things are close enough to normal that farmers aren't going to make drastic changes in either their planting decisions or their irrigation decisions," Sumner said.
The abundant rainfall this year will ease pressure on the state's groundwater reservoirs, which have been tapped extensively during the drought to keep crops alive when surface water was unavailable.
"What that does is give us a little cushion in terms of planning for long-term changes," Sumner said.
Kim said the state may need to plan for a future with more limited water resources, "a future that may come sooner rather than later."
About 4 percent of the California agricultural economy - $1.8 billion - will be lost in 2015 due to the California drought, and combined with ripple effects in affiliated industries, will produce a $2.7 billion economic hit, reported the San Jose Mercury-News.
The downturn will be felt most sharply in the San Joaquin Valley, where five of the state's top six agricultural counties are situated.
"Tulare is taking the hardest hit," said the report's lead author Richard Howitt, a UC Davis professor emeritus of agricultural and resource economics.
Pumping groundwater has hepled keep some acreage in production. This study did not address the long-term costs of groundwater overdraft, such as higher pumping costs and greater water scarcity.
"The socioeconomic impacts of an extended ground (water use), in 2016 and beyond, could be much more severe," said Jay Lund of UC Davis, who lead the analysis.