Content Warning: This article discusses Hurricane Helene, Hurricane Milton, Hurricane Harvey, and other climate change-related issues and impacts that might be hard to read for some. We are sharing it here because we think it will be helpful to our community in communicating about the influence of climate change on current events, and for preparing our community for the ongoing and increasingly compound and cascading impacts of climate change.
I am so grateful for the incredible community of Naturalists and Climate Stewards we have here in California. You have committed to learning about climate change and other environmental issues, addressing the root causes of the problems, and strengthening your capacity - and that of others - to adapt to the impacts we are already experiencing. And, I am so grateful for the many other communities around the country and around the world that identify with each other around a common value, identity, or cause. Right now communities in the Southeast region of the U.S. are experiencing unprecedented flooding and destruction of infrastructure leading to power outages, lack of access to clean water, food shortages, lack of access to health care, and loss of connectivity to the outside world and other nearby communities via roads, internet, and cellular networks because of the extreme precipitation event before and during Hurricane Helene coupled with the winds also associated with the hurricane. Now, several of those same communities, as well as many others that were not just crippled by Hurricane Helene, have endured another deadly storm known as Hurricane Milton. Yet, these are not all.
In the last two months, several unnatural disasters have occurred around the world that would not have happened without the influence of human-driven climate change. Since this is probably the first time you are reading the phrase “unnatural disasters”, I want to give you more information and some perspective on why we need to start using this phrase more to describe the extreme events that are attributable to climate disruption. Put simply, unnatural disasters are the deaths and damages that result from human acts of omission (that is, something humans could have done but did not do) and commission (that is, something humans did that contributed to the disaster situation). Not every disaster is an unnatural disaster, but growing numbers of extreme weather events are.
Every month the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) compiles a map of “selected significant climate anomalies and events” around the world.These maps are of anomalies (that is, something that deviates from what is standard, normal, or expected) and is a good snapshot of the unnatural disasters that result from human-driven climate change. (Ironically, NCEI is based in Asheville, North Carolina and it may be some time before this resource is again available (https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/node/6696).)
In recent years, climate scientists have been working diligently to understand how increasingly extreme storms, unbearable heat, and catastrophic flooding are connected to human-caused climate change. This field of study, known as attribution science, is the process of determining if a particular extreme event is the result of changes to Earth's climate. When examining how human-caused climate change may influence these events, the questions are,
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“What is the chance of this event occurring as a result of human activities?”,
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“Could this event have occurred if the climate had not changed?”, and
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“Would this event have been this intense if the climate had not changed?”.
Because of this research, we know that extreme storms such as Hurricane Harvey that hit Texas in 2017 and extreme heat like the Pacific Northwest (PNW) Heat Dome that occurred in 2021 would not have happened without climate change. Human-caused climate change created the atmospheric and ocean conditions related to temperature, water vapor, and pressure (among others) that fueled the scale and intensity of these events. In fact, climate change likely increased the total rainfall from Hurricane Harvey by 15-38% over what similar hurricane precipitation would have been a few decades earlier, while climate change made the scale and intensity of the PNW Heat Dome 150 times more likely.
Due to the incomprehensible enormity of extreme storm events and impacts like those of Hurricane Helene, some communicators have called these events “biblical” or “an act of God”. As a scientist and a person-of-faith, I need to tell you that this is categorically untrue. These events have been explosively magnified in size, frequency, and intensity by human activities, in particular, the burning of fossil fuels like coal, oil, and methane gas for energy and transportation. Attributing these events to a “divine” cause misplaces the responsibility for them. Yes, it is hard to fathom. Yes, it is uncomfortable to understand and admit. But, unnatural disasters occur because of choices we, humans, have made.
Fortunately, in a weird twist of fate, this gives us, humans, power to do something about them. As a human, I can't stop a volcano from erupting, but I can change my behavior in how I use energy and consume resources. Indeed, I have spent the last 20 years of both my personal and professional life making new and different decisions as I learn better ways to interact with the world, thanks in part to my communities. Like you, I am constantly learning from my communities about how things can be different, focusing on advancing solutions (which are often multi-layered and not a simple “silver bullet”, and working collectively to make change happen in the world.
I know these current events might seem far away from California, but the reach of our Environmental Stewards community extends across the U.S. and beyond. We are sharing this with you here because we know you will take this, like the many other things you have learned as Naturalists and Stewards, and spread the message more broadly. This ongoing work is part of a steady, consistent, long-term approach to education and communication that reaches past the moment of the disaster, giving people the chance to hear the message at other times and in different ways. Helping move the needle of behavior change through persistence over time. I know as we continue our work together, we will have a growing influence on reducing the impacts of climate change on our communities and ecosystems. Please continue this good work by sharing the story of unnatural disasters and how taking responsibility will make a better world for all of us.