- Author: Dan Macon
Looking back at more than 20 years of precipitation data I've collected since my family moved to Auburn, I can't say that we've ever had an “average” year – that is, we've never had exactly 32.68 inches of rain. Some years, like 2016-17, we measure quite a bit more than average (62.96 inches, to be exact); other years, like 2020-21, we measure less (just 19 inches). Since I started keeping track in 2003, we've had 12 years with less than our average, and 6 years with more than average (the balance – 3 years – have been close to what I would call "normal"). Since 2007, we've experienced several 2-4 year stretches of below average rainfall – including the memorable droughts of 2012-2015 and 2020-2022. Interestingly, though, the trendline on my data suggests that our “average” precipitation has increased slightly since I started keeping track in 2003.
But as anyone who manages livestock on our annual rangelands will tell you, the amount of rainfall we receive is only part of the story when it comes to grass growth – timing and temperature (both soil and air temperature) are key drivers in rangeland forage production. The last two years have provided a stark example!
Think back to mid-March 2022. After an exceptionally wet start to the water year (in October 2021, I measured more than 10 inches of rain), our rangeland forages got off to a great start – they'd germinated in late October and had grown through early December. But in January 2022, the faucet shut off – we received less than 2.5 inches from January 1 through March 31. By some accounts, it was the driest January-March on record. I recall checking soil moisture on the rangelands where our sheep were grazing in mid-March 2022, and finding that we had less than 25% moisture – more like May conditions in the root zone of our rangeland plants.
Despite these dry conditions, however, the UC Sierra Foothill Research and Education Center (SFREC) measured 1,412 pounds of forage per acre on March 1, 2022 (187% of “average” for the date). Rain returned in April 2022, and total forage production at SFREC ended up being 122% of the long term average (just over 3,800 pounds per acre).
In the autumn of 2022, our germinating rain came nearly a month later than the year before – which meant the rangeland forage didn't have much time to grow before the short days and cold temperatures of December forced it into dormancy. A wet and cold December was followed by a wetter (if somewhat warmer) January 2023. While February was slightly drier than “average,” March turned wet and cold again. As of this writing (March 29), we've measured exactly 28 inches of rain at our home place in Auburn since New Year's Day!
Even with all of this moisture, however, forage production at SFREC is lagging significantly behind last year. On March 1, SFREC measured just 619 pounds per acre (less than the long term average for that date of 750 pounds - and less than half of what we had a year ago at this time). As you might expect, soil temperatures followed the cooler air temperatures in late February; cold soils mean little or no forage growth.
Stated another way, we were in a precipitation drought on this date last year – and we had more forage than “average.” This year is shaping up to be one of the wetter years since I've worked in the foothills – and we're short on feed at the moment (a grass drought). With long days and warmer temperatures coming, I suspect the forage will explode in April, but for now, feed conditions in the foothills are tight!
So how do we manage through this kind of uncertainty? As ranchers, how can we set our stocking rates and production calendars given these wide swings in conditions? During our Working Rangelands Wednesdays webinar series last year, Dr. Leslie Roche (our Cooperative Extension Specialist in Rangeland Management) suggested that while the total amount and seasonable distribution of precipitation are the biggest drivers for annual forage production, specific timing is also critical. November and April precipitation are especially important, based on Dr. Roche's analysis. A statewide collaborative effort is ground-truthing remote sensing technology that will hopefully provide real-time forage production data without needing an army of range technicians clipping plots on a weekly basis.
All of this information will help ranchers make decisions about seasonal and annual adjustments to our stocking rates, but good management will always require careful planning and on-the-fly adjustment to the current year's conditions. While While my colleague Grace Woodmansee (Siskiyou County Livestock and Natural Resources Advisor) developed our Drought Decision Support Tool with drought in mind, I'm realizing there's value in putting together a 12-month forage plan regardless of the conditions! There's no such thing as an average year!
- Author: Dan Macon
Raising Livestock on Rangeland is not an Indoor Sport...
Larry McMurtry's novel, Lonesome Dove, was published the year I graduated from high school (way back in 1985 - before blogging was a word)! Four years later, the novel became one of my favorite television miniseries, featuring Robert Duvall, Tommy Lee Jones, and Danny Glover (among others). While there are a number of memorable scenes and lines (from both the book and the miniseries), one that sticks with me as a rancher is Agustus McCrae's eulogy for Danny Glover's character, Deets:
"Cheerful in all weathers. Never shirked a task."
I've been reminded of this line frequently over the last several weeks - as we've had cold rain and wind here in Auburn, and as other ranchers in California have been dealing with never-ending snow. Rangeland agriculture - grazing sheep, goats, and cattle on the vegetation that Mother Nature provides - requires us to tend to our animals regardless of the conditions we (and they) are facing. We may not always be cheerful about unrelenting snow or sweltering heat, but if we've ranched for very long, we know that we can't shirk a task when it comes to our livestock.
But working in all weathers is much easier when we're intentional about our management systems and production calendars. We lamb on pasture, so we time our lambing to coincide with what is usually the onset of rapid grass growth in late winter (we're still waiting for rapid growth this year). This system requires that our ewes have strong maternal abilities - that they can lamb mostly without our help, that they can turn our rangeland forages into enough milk for their lambs, that their lambs get up and going quickly, and that they can count at least to two. Rather than trust to luck, we've utilized an objective selection process that allows us to keep our best ewes and their daughters, while culling the ewes that don't measure up.
Our intentionality extends to our grazing management. On our winter rangelands, we have open hillsides that we graze before lambing begins, which allows us to save the more sheltered areas (with trees, brush, and topography that provide shelter from wind and rain) for lambing. We watch the weather diligently during lambing season - while sheltered paddocks are important, there's no better shelter for a lamb than a belly full of milk. If we know we have cold or wet weather coming in, we'll move the ewes to fresh feed so that they don't have to walk very far to fill their rumens with forage. And we've found a cost-effective, biodegradable plastic raincoat that helps keep the youngest lambs warm and relatively dry in really nasty weather.
Even the best management planning can't change the weather, though. Sometimes, like January-March last year, it doesn't rain at all. We adjusted by building larger paddocks in steeper terrain to give the ewes access to more forage. Sometimes we get sleet or even snow in early March; we adjust to these conditions by increasing the number of times we check the sheep (including checks every two to three hours during the night). This year, due to some extenuating family circumstances, we've purchased feed for the ewes to supplement what they are able to graze during the current stormy stretch.
And despite our best planning efforts, sometimes Mother Nature simply doesn't cooperate. I have friends who are spending 16-person-hours a day feeding the cows they can find in four feet of snow - and arranging for helicopters to drop hay to the cows they can't reach. Other friends have hauled sheep and goats to higher ground during lambing and kidding - lining up trucks and building corrals on very short notice can be extremely stressful. This diligence is more than just an economic consideration; caring for animals is a responsibility that goes well beyond dollars and cents.
Finally, I suppose that being intentional extends to our wardrobe and equipment choices as ranchers. My friend John Helle, who ranches in western Montana, says his Norwegian grandfather used to say, "There's no bad weather, only bad clothing." Someone else once told me, "don't buy cheap boots or cheap cold or wet weather gear - you'll always be sorry." As I get older, being cheerful in all weathers (or at least being less grumpy in bad weather) is directly related to my own comfort and safety. Wool clothing, Gortex(tm) rain gear, and waterproof boots are part of my winter wardrobe; my summer gear includes broad-brimmed hats and sunscreen!
Last weekend, we held our annual Pasture Lambing Workshop. With rain and sleet in the forecast, several folks canceled at the last minute - but the two young women who did show up were enthusiastic and eager to learn. We talked about the planning and preparation that goes into any successful rangeland-based production system - planning that allows us to trust our animals and trust ourselves to cope with whatever the weather throws at us!
- Author: Dan Macon
The Nevada-Placer-Yuba Disaster Livestock Access Pass Program operated for its second year in 2022. This program, available to commercial livestock producers in the three counties, is the first (and so far, only) multi-county program in California. The program is managed by UC Cooperative Extension and the Nevada, Placer, and Yuba Agriculture Departments, in partnership with CALFIRE and local law enforcement and emergency management agencies.
The program is available for commercial producers raising cattle, sheep, goats, poultry, rabbits, llamas, alpacas, and bees (commercial means the livestock are part of a business). To be eligible for the program, a producer must own 50 head of livestock (including in utero, e.g., 25 bred cows), 100 poultry or rabbits, or 50 beehives. The geographic area of the program matches CALFIRES Nevada-Yuba-Placer Unit and reflects the on-the-ground reality that many commercial livestock producers operate in multiple counties.
The program is not an animal rescue or evacuation program; rather, the pass is designed to provide coordinated and safe access for producers with operations inside evacuation zones. Passholders work with UCCE and county agriculture departments to obtain permission from incident commanders to re-enter evacuation zones when it is safe to do so, for the purpose of feeding and caring for livestock.
In 2022, the program expanded by 68% - 72 producers obtained passes. New producers participated in a 4-hour training session hosted by UCCE, local agriculture departments, CALFIRE, and local law enforcement/emergency management agencies at the UC Sierra Foothill Research and Extension Center (with lunch generously sponsored by the Sutter-Yuba Farm Bureau). Renewing passholders participated in an online refresher training developed by UCCE. While passes were not formally used during the 2022 fire season, the pass program created positive working relationships between the ranching community and first responders. These relationships resulted in opportunities to help address producer and livestock safety during the Rices Fire in Nevada County and the Mosquito Fire in Placer County.
The California State Association of Counties recognized the Nevada-Placer-Yuba program with a 2022 Challenge Award in the Rural Disaster & Emergency Response category, citing the program's innovative tri-county partnership and proactive approach to addressing both public safety and livestock well-being.
Governor Newsom signed AB 1103 (sponsored by Assembly Woman Megan Dahle) in October 2021. This legislation creates a statewide livestock pass program, with new statewide training due out in 2023. Once this new curriculum is rolled out, we will be scheduling training for new and renewing passholders in all three counties! If you'd like updates on these training sessions, or the program in general, contact me at dmacon@ucanr.edu.
2022 Program Statistics
- 28% of passholders had operations in more than one county. On average, passholders operated on 2.4 individual properties.
- 35% had multiple species of livestock.
- 38% of passholders operated in Nevada County; 21% in Placer, 29% in Yuba, and 11% had operations outside of the 3-county region.
- Participation by livestock species:
- Beef Cattle: 65%
- Sheep: 32%
- Goats: 19%
- Poultry: 19%
- Bees: 15%
- Hogs: 8%
- Rabbits: 7%
- Dairy (Goats or Cattle): 6%
- Other Livestock: 11%
- 86% were owners or family members of commercial operations; the balance were employees.
- Author: Dan Macon
After several multi-year droughts over the last decade, I find myself puzzled by the moisture that's been falling from the sky here in Auburn this winter! I find myself even more puzzled by the saturated state of our foothill soils! Over the last several weeks, as I've driven Highway 49 between Auburn and Sonora, I've seen creeks running that haven't flowed in the last several years. After years of worrying about drought and wildfire, I find myself worrying this year about flooding.
In the last two weeks here in Auburn, I've measured more than 11 inches of rain. Our total for the water year (which started October 1) is more than 23 inches - more than we measured in all of 2020-21! And if the 7-day forecast is correct, we'll measure another 6 inches by next Tuesday. In other words, we're wet and going to get wetter!
Over the last two fire seasons, we've implemented a Livestock Pass Program here in our foothill counties (Nevada, Placer, and Yuba). Rather than focusing on evacuating livestock during an active emergency, the program provides training for ranchers to allow access within evacuation zones to care for livestock. While our focus has been on wildfire evacuations, recent flooding in rural parts of Sacramento County reminds me that there may be other types of disasters (natural and otherwise) for which we need to prepare.
During fire season, I carry 5 gallons of water and a fire tool in my pick-up. While I've never actually had to use either of these, I feel better knowing that I have at least some capacity to deal with an emergency. But it's been so long since we've had this kind of winter weather, I've had to think about what I need to carry in my truck this winter.
Unlike the Sacramento Valley (where all of this water we're seeing in the foothills eventually winds up), our region typically doesn't face total inundation. That said, rainfall like we've experienced in the last several weeks makes small creeks run and bigger creeks rage - sometimes across the roads I use to access our sheep before and after work. And the combination of saturated soils, high winds, and drought-weakened trees can cause problems, as well - with fencelines and power lines alike. Since we use portable electro-net fencing, I spend a few extra minutes each day walking the fence to make sure nothing has blown over. This week, with more wind and rain, I put my chainsaw and shovel in my truck.
Someone asked me this week how my sheep chores change in weather like this. I jokingly answered that not much changes, other than the fact that I get wet while doing them! But that's not entirely true - I find that my grazing planning does change when we're in a wet pattern like this. Since we won't be lambing for another 6-7 weeks, I'm not too worried about making sure there's shelter from wind and rain - the ewes are pretty hardy at this stage. But I do adhere to the old shepherd's adage that the best shelter for sheep is a belly full of grass. Just like I try to keep my gas tank at least half full during fire season, I try to make sure the sheep always have enough feed to be ok if I can't get to the paddock for a day or two.
And with the rain we've had so far, we seem to have enough grass! For now, anyway!
- Author: Dan Macon
I suppose my obsession with the weather apps on my smartphone started during the 2013-2014 drought. I've always been a weather geek, but during that dry spell, I found myself constantly checking multiple apps to see if one held more hope for moisture than another. That fall, I was lambing out a large commercial flock of sheep in the California Delta. Later that winter, I went to work as the beef herdsman at UC's Sierra Foothill Research and Extension Center (SFREC). Grass - and the moisture to grow it - was never far from front of mind. And as a dry, cold December stretched into an even drier January, we reduced our sheep numbers (both on the outfit I was working for, and in our own flock). As the weather stayed dry that spring, we hunted every blade of grass we could find at SFREC. And looking at the plethora of weather apps that are still on my phone today, I find myself getting nervous about this fall and winter... again!
Based on that 2013-2014 experience, I've become much more focused on my grazing planning. For me, this involves multiple timeframes - I'm thinking about where our sheep will be able to graze over the next 3-4 weeks, as well as what our forage resources might look like into late January and February (during late gestation for our ewes). Beyond lambing, I start thinking about how much irrigated pasture we'll have available to us next summer. Based on this planning, I can adjust when and where we move the sheep in the short term. In the long term, I can adjust our flock size to make sure our forage demand balances with our forage supply.
Setting our stocking rate, then, becomes a critical part of our drought strategy. Do we stock for an "average" year (whatever that is)? Do we stock for a good year with the understanding that we'll need to sell animals if our grass doesn't come on? Or do we stock conservatively - for the worst years - and adjust by bringing in more animals if we're pleasantly surprised by rainfall and grass? My friend and colleague Josh Davy, who runs cows in the Sacramento Valley, says, "My starting point is to set my stocking rate so that I can survive December and January - those are the toughest months, feed-wise."
We can also affect our stocking rate simply through our management calendar. We try to matching our lambing period (which is also our period of highest forage demand) with the onset of rapid grass growth (usually in late February or early March). Most years, this works out - although the incredibly dry period we had in the first quarter of 2022 tested my resolve. This also allows us to reduce our stocking rate as the forage dries out in late spring and summer - by simply selling our lambs.
All of this brings me back to THIS fall and getting nervous. We had a germinating rain in mid September - and we've had no precipitation since here in Auburn. The grass that germinated after that first rain has stopped growing (and in some cases, died). Our irrigation water shut off on October 15, which means our irrigated pasture won't grow much more forage unless we get some rain. Last night, I mapped out our grazing for the next month - I think we'll have enough grass to stay on our irrigated pasture until the first weekend of December.
After that, we'll see where we are - if we get rain in the next 7-10 days (and there appears to be some in our forecast - depending on the app I'm looking at!), we'll have some green forage on our lower elevation annual rangelands by the time we move the sheep. If we don't get any rain, we'll need to provide supplemental protein to allow the ewes to digest the dry forage we saved as a buffer. At this point, I'm reluctant to sell any bred ewes - we've already invested in next year's lamb crop.
During last year's dry spell, Siskiyou County Livestock and Natural Resources Advisor, Grace Woodmansee and I developed a drought decision support tool to help ranchers think about their short- and long-term drought strategies. The core of this tool is a 12-month forage calendar - a tool to help you think about potential gaps in your forage supply through the course of the year. This year, I've found it helpful to revisit my forage projections on a regular basis - grass that seemed plentiful after last December suddenly looked short in mid-March. Similarly, what looked to be a dismal grass year in March turned around with April's storms. The process of planning - of looking ahead at our grass - helped make my decision-making process more rational. Had April remained dry, I would have sold sheep; since it turned wet, I was able to maintain my numbers. My forage calendar, in other words, allowed me to establish some realistic key dates for decision-making.
Now, if you'll excuse me, I need to check a few more weather apps - one of them is bound to have an optimistic forecast for next week!