Posts Tagged: demographic changes
California will see slow population growth, big Latino gains
The Department of Finance's demographic unit projects that the state's population, 37.3 million in the 2010 census and nearly 39 million now, will top 51 million by 2060, 38 percent higher than the census number.
That would continue the state's relatively slow growth of the past two decades, under 1 percent a year.
The demographers project that the state's Latino population will grow by 11.4 million during that 50-year period, or 81 percent, while the Asian-American population will grow by 3.2 million or 67 percent.
The state's rapidly aging white population, meanwhile, is expected to decline by 2 million during that period while the black population is projected to remain virtually unchanged.
Latinos are already the state's largest single ethnic group, but Latino growth is also slowing due to a declining birthrate and virtually no net gain from migration in recent years. By 2060, Latinos should be close to half of the state's population.
The Department of Finance projections also apply to counties. Demographers see Kern County as the state's fastest growing county during the 50-year period, with a 112 percent gain, followed by Madera at 101 percent. A few rural counties are projected to lose population.
Los Angeles County, home to more than a quarter of the state's population now, is projected to grow by less than half the rate of the state as a whole. That's true of most other coastal counties, while inland regions, particularly those with high Latino populations, have the highest projected gains.
Source: Published originally on The Sacramento Bee as California will see slow population growth, big Latino gains by Dan Walters, March 13, 2015.
The future of California electorate
Future increases in the Latino and Asian populations will vary significantly in size and location across California, meaning that changes in the strength of Latino and Asian voter growth will be uneven across the state in the coming decades.
California's eligible electorate will dramatically change over the next 30 years. If projections hold, it will gain 8.3 million new eligible voters – 8 million of which will be people of color (non-white). By sheer population change, the state will shift from an electorate historically (and still currently) proportionately dominated by non-Latino whites. Already by the 2016 elections, California is projected to have a majority-minority electorate.
For the first time, non-Latino whites will fall below 50 percent of the state's eligible voters. By 2040, Latinos and Asians combined are projected to be just over 50 percent of California's actual voters (assuming parity with non-Latino and non-Asian turnout rates) – and over 60 percent of the vote in many counties within the state.
However, an increased share of the state's vote does not automatically mean a representative democracy for California. If disparities in eligible voter turnout rates remain, then Latinos and Asians in the state are projected to continue to hold a share of the vote that is not commensurate with their proportion of the eligible citizen voting age population. If new eligible non-white voters are not transitioned into actual voters at a rate that is at least on pace with their increasing proportions of the electorate then the state's voting population could become even less representative.
Mobilizing California's Eligible Non-Voters
As the landscape of the state's electorate shifts, it is likely that its political landscape will change as well. A larger political voice for historically underrepresented groups matters. Recent national level research supports the conclusion that those who vote in the current electorate often do not represent the views of those who don't vote, particularity on issues related to economic policy. Current voters tend to be more conservative on issues of resource distribution than non-voters. As the make-up of California's voting electorate changes over time, the interests and needs of its new members may push the state's political structure to adjust its issue priorities.
Achieving a fully participating electorate is critical to ensuring a fully representative and responsive democratic system for California.
Source: UC Davis Center for Regional Change, The California Civic Engagement Project, The Future of California Electorate (Policy Brief, Issue 7) by Mindy Romero, January 2014.
San Diego Latinos surveyed about beliefs, experiences
That majority-minority status is expected to continue for the next 50 years or so — except for one major change. The percentage of whites and Latinos in the population switch, with Latinos making up 48 percent of the population.
KPBS and San Diego Magazine recently commissioned a survey of Latinos living in San Diego to discover the attitudes and ideologies that may shape the community and our city in future years.
UC San Diego researcher Tom Wong wrote the survey. He said it looks at a number of issues including immigration and demographic change.
"We can think about increased diversity as the new normal," Wong said. "Part of the new normal is how society responds."
Wong is among a group of researchers who are interested in understanding how different racial and ethnic groups are faring within American society.
"Historically we've seen trends where communities have responded to immigration very negatively," Wong said. "We need to know, not from the perspective of an outsider looking in, how they feel. We need to hear from individuals themselves."
Wong said knowing how San Diego's Latino population feels will help the broader community have an open, honest dialogue.
Survey Results
All of the 400 survey respondents self-reported that they were Hispanic or Latino.
When asked whether life in San Diego would be better if the city's diverse communities were more integrated, an overwhelming majority, 70 percent, responded yes.
Only about 12 percent of respondents said they felt San Diego is already one of the most diverse and integrated places in the United States.
The majority of respondents, 89 percent, said they had experienced “a little” to “a great deal” of discrimination.
In regards to language, 52.5 percent responded they can speak English and Spanish equally, or speak English and a little or no Spanish
The majority, 58 percent, of survey respondents reported no preference when using the terms "Hispanic" or "Latino" to describe a person of Latin American descent.
Wong said, "When asked, 'how would you describe the average Hispanic/Latino,' respondents gave 212 distinct answers. The most frequent response by far was 'hard worker,' which was mentioned 202 times."
Other commonly used descriptions include "Good, Kind, Caring," "Important," "Family Oriented," and "Determined/Never Gives Up."
"Hard worker" was also the most frequent response (108 times) to a question about how the the average San Diegan would describe the average Latino.
Source: Published originally on KPBS.org as San Diego Latinos surveyed about beliefs, experiences, by Megan Burke, Maureen Cavanaugh, Peggy Pico, November 14, 2013.
/h3>Hispanics will become the plurality in California in 2014
The latest projection series indicates that the Hispanic population will be even with the number of non-Hispanic Whites by mid-2013. Early in 2014, the Hispanic population will become the plurality in California for the first time since California became a state.
This population gain – nearly 15.4 million between 2010 and 2060 – would represent enough new residents to currently rank as the fifth largest state in the Union.
Other State highlights of the latest projection series include:
- By 2060, both the Black and the White populations will have increased in size, but decreased in proportion to the total population. Hispanics will comprise nearly half (48 percent) of all Californians. Asians will also grow significantly in population, but only marginally relative to the total population (just over 13 percent). Asians are currently just under 13 percent. The non-Hispanic White population will decline to 30 percent from the current 39 percent and the Black population from 6 percent to 4 percent.
- For the population as a whole, the median age will increase from 35.2 to 41.9 years old. Whites have the highest median age in 2010 (44.5) while Asians have the highest in 2060 (47.0). Hispanics’ median age (27.2 in 2010 and 39.0 in 2060) is consistently lower than all other race groups.
- In 2030, there will be 9.6 million Hispanics in the prime working ages of 25 to 64; Whites will have 7.2 million and Asians 3.1 million. By 2060, Hispanics will be the largest group in the working ages by a considerable margin: 12.1 million Hispanics to 7.4 million Whites and 3.2 million Asians.
- An important conclusion shown from this projection series is how the age of each of the race groups will change over time. There were nearly 10 million baby-boomers in 1990, the majority being White. The White baby-boomer population is now aging into retirement and all will likely retire in the next two decades. As this happens, a lower percentage of the working-age population will be White and a larger percentage will be Hispanic and Asian. There will be 7.2 million Hispanics under 25 years of age compared to 2.2 million who will be 65 and older.
- By the end of the projection period in 2060, there will be more Hispanics over age 65 (5.1 million) than Whites over 65 years (4.1 million).
- California will remain one of the younger states in the Union for the next twenty years. Due to California’s diversity and because of its role as the primary gateway state for immigration, California will not age as rapidly in the coming twenty years as many other states.
Source: California Department of Finance, New Population Projections: California To Surpass 50 Million In 2049, January 31, 2011.
State of the Hispanic consumer
The U.S. Hispanic population is the largest minority segment and is growing at a dramatic rate towards ethnic plurality, which has already occurred in the most populous states and is beginning to occur among the U.S. baby population.
The future U.S. economy will depend on Hispanics by virtue of demographic change and the social and cultural shifts expected to accompany their continued growth, according to a new Nielsen report, State of the Hispanic Consumer: The Hispanic Market Imperative, which explores multiple aspects of this population.
“It has become increasingly important to challenge commonly held misconceptions about the Latino market that undermine the importance of its size, uniqueness, and value,” reads the report. The topics of this report draw on compelling evidence of market change and the perspective of marketers who have proven success in the Latino marketplace:
- Latinos are a fundamental component to business success, and not a passing niche on the sidelines.
- Rapid Latino population growth will persist, even if immigration is completely halted.
- Latinos have amassed significant buying power, despite perceptions to the contrary.
- Hispanics are the largest immigrant group to exhibit significant culture sustainability and are not disappearing into the American melting pot.
- Technology and media use do not mirror the general market but have distinct patterns due to language, culture, and ownership dynamics.
- Latinos exhibit distinct product consumption patterns and are not buying in ways that are the same as the total market.
Between 2000 and 2011, Hispanics accounted for 50 percent of U.S. population growth—14.7 million vs. 14.5 million among non-Hispanics. But between 2011 and 2016, Hispanics will comprise 60% of growth—7.4 million vs. 5.0 million, says Nielsen.
Rapid Latino population growth will persist, even if immigration is completely halted, says Nielsen. It cited long-range U.S. Census Bureau forecasts for Hispanic growth of 167 percent between 2010 and 2050 vs. 42 percent for the U.S. population overall.
The Latino population is young compared with a graying U.S. population—60 percent of the group is under age 35, and 75 percent is under age 45. The current median Latino age is 28 vs. 37 in the general population.
The Lempert Report mentions some of the distinctive ways Hispanics consume products and use media and technology:
- Hispanics make fewer shopping trips per household than non-Hispanics and spend more per trip.
- Hispanics spend 68 percent more time watching video on the Internet and 20 percent more time watching video on mobile phones than non-Hispanic whites.
- Hispanics are 28 percent likelier to own a smartphone than non-Hispanic whites. But they are less likely to access the Internet at home—62 percent vs. a 76 percent U.S. average.
Source: Nielsen, State of the Hispanic Consumer: The Hispanic Market Imperative, and Latino insights key to a vast growing market by The Lempert Report / Consumer Insight, Inc., Feb-April 2012.