Posts Tagged: economy
A New Look at How Latinos are Powering the U.S. Economy: Report
Headed by University of California, Los Angeles Professor David E. Hayes-Bautista, and Werner Schink, CEO of Latino Futures Research, the report commissioned by the non-partisan group Latino Donor Collaborative estimates the total GDP of the Latino population based on data that is publicly available at the U.S. Department of Commerce and the U.S. Department of Labor.
In a discussion with NBC News over the phone, Hayes-Bautista said that most studies on Latino economic power look at Hispanics one-dimensionally, through their spending power. But by looking at Latinos beyond consumption and instead through their economic production, Latinos' contribution to the nation can be seen more as an investment than an expense.
“I've been studying Latinos for over 40 years, and you can point out some amazing things about Latinos, but people just yawn. But if you reframe Latinos in terms investors can understand, by size and growth rate, we can have a better idea of Latinos' importance in the U.S. economy," said Hayes-Bautista, professor of medicine and director of the Center for the Study of Latino Health and Culture at the School of Medicine, UCLA.
According to the report, “The U.S. Latino GDP is growing 70 percent faster that the country's non-Latino GDP.”
For instance, 70 percent of the growth in our workforce is Latino. In the 75 years he has reviewed data, said Hayes-Bautista, Latinos have consistently ranked at the top, with the highest labor force participation rates.
Another common misperception around the country, the report finds is that non-U.S. citizen Latinos do not participate in the work force as much as other populations. In fact, male Latino non-citizens have an extremely high work force participation rate, over 90 percent for young mature workers aged 25 to 49.
Poll: 62% unhappy with economy 16:28
Hayes-Bautista has spent his professional career dispelling myths about Latinos, and working in California, first at Stanford and then at UCLA, he has seen how the Hispanic population has changed over the decades. Our perception of Latinos is based on an old model, he explained.
Immigration since the 1990s has effectively ceased being the largest factor in the demographic growth of the Latino population. “Immigrant growth has been fading out, and their kids are taking over, the millennials and post millennials are going to be driving our economy,” he said.
When you look at burgeoning cities throughout the country since the 1970s, Latinos have revitalized or saved those regions from massive decline as the non-Latino white population ages.
Hayes-Bautista said that misperceptions about Latinos evoke policies under false assumptions that ultimately do more harm than good for the nation as a whole.
“Latinos work more hours, work less in the public sector, and have the lowest rates of welfare utilization," Hayes-Bautista said. Yet despite their low relative burden to taxpayers, “their reward is the highest level of poverty in the nation.”
If the U.S. realized how vital Latinos are to the future of the United States, there would be greater investment in education, infrastructure, job training, and health care, rather than a constant flow of negative messaging about gangbangers, Hayes-Bautista said.
The report's takeaway is that the country's economic future depends on the interconnectedness between ethnicities and generations.
“The ability of the baby boomers to retire and use their benefits, such as health care and their investment portfolio," said Hayes-Bautista, "depends on Latinos."
Source: Published originally on nbcnews.com A New Look at How Latinos are Powering the U.S. Economy: Report by by Stephen A. Nuño
Millennial Latinos See Better Future, But Also Worry About It
The poll found that 87 percent of millennial Latinos are concerned that Social Security won't exist when they need it. It also found concern from about the same share of Latino millennials over having to help parents with health care and living expenses when they are older.
By contrast, 63 percent of Latinos 36 and older said they are worried about the availability of Social Security and 69 percent about caring for parents.
However, asked about how they'd be doing financially a year from now, 63 percent of millennials thought they'd be better off, while just 36 percent of the 36-and-older group expect financial improvement.
The poll, conducted by Latino Decisions for NCLR, surveyed 1,000 Latino registered voters about economic, health and political issues. The poll's margin of error is plus or minus 3 percentage points.
The poll included an oversample of millennial Latino registered voters. In a telephone news conference, Eric Rodriguez, an NCLR vice president, said the poll was intended to get more detailed views of Latinos on various issues of the election campaign.
"In spite a lot of the attention around the Latino vote (this election), we haven't seen an intentional or deep engagement with our community, particularly around issues," Rodriguez said.
"No one is really talking to our community and asking what's top of our mind … and what Latino voters are thinking at the dinner tables. What keep us up at night. What are our aspirations and what our thoughts about the future and those that we love.”
Studies have shown that once registered, Latinos have high voting rates. About 85 percent of millennial Latino voters said they definitely would vote, compared to 90 percent of Latino voters 36 and older.
Latinos are younger than the national population as a whole and about 44 percent of Latino eligible voters are millennials. The turnout rates for young Latinos overall, those registered and not registered, lag behind the turnout rates for black and white young voters.
Election preferences of the two groups were about the same, with 66 percent of millennial Latinos saying they'd vote for Clinton and 19 percent for Trump.
Seventy-three percent of Latinos 36 and older said they would vote for Clinton and 16 were voting for Trump.
However, 9 percent of millennials said they'd vote for a third party candidate, compared to 2 percent of 36 and older Latinos.
When asked to list the top economic issue the new Congress and president should address, both groups listed first the need to create more and better paying jobs.
But the second and third most mentioned issues for millennials were college affordability and student loan debt as well as an improvement of wages or raising the minimum wage, in that order.
For Latinos 36 and older, immigration reform was the second most mentioned issue, showing how that group sees a link between immigration and the economy. Third on the list was keeping the Social Security program strong.
"When people say that the economy is a priority issue, they do have very particular things that they're talking about," said Sylvia Manzano, a principal with Latino Decisions.
Manzano said despite portrayals of millennials as pessimistic, the poll showed that generally, that description doesn't apply to Latino millennials.
"There's not a lot of pessimism among any age group — but the degree to which the younger cohort thinks things will be better is quite dramatic," she said.
Source: Published originally on nbcnews.com Poll: Millennial Latinos See Better Future, But Also Worry About It, by Suzanne Gamboa, October 27, 2016.
US Latinos believe education is one of the nation's most important issues: Report
Friedman Foundation for Educational Choice published a report in Sept., which provided insights into Latinos' thoughts on education. "Latino Perspectives on K-12 Education & School Choice" revealed a number of important discoveries, including one-in-five Latinos (22 percent) naming education as the nation's second most important issue, preceded only by the economy and jobs (27 percent). Also, education was named over immigration (13 percent).
Latinos would like to send their children to charter schools and private schools, yet many are unable, whether it's due to cost or distance. The snapshot of the Latino community revealed Latinos' overwhelming support of education saving accounts (ESAs), tax-credit scholarships and school vouchers, which is far more than the general market. According to the report, southern Latinos were more likely to be concerned about education, compared to Latinos living in the west (27 percent compared to 16 percent). Also, young (30 percent) and middle-age Latino respondents (17 percent) were more likely to be concerned about education than seniors (10 percent).
U.S. Latinos also have firm opinions when it comes to K-12 education. Approximately 53 percent of Latinos stated K-12 education was on the "wrong track," while just 38 percent indicated that it was headed in the "right direction." However, Latinos were more likely than the general market to say K-12 education was "going in the right direction" (38 percent compared to 32 percent). Overall, roughly 60 percent of the nation indicated K-12 education was on the "wrong track," compared to just 53 percent of Latino respondents.
The numbers showed that middle-age Latino respondents (45 percent) and low-income (47 percent) were more positive than younger Latinos (31 percent) and middle-income (32 percent) and high-income Latinos (26 percent) about the direction of K-12 education. The report also showed that Latinos are weary about federal involvement in K-12 education, and 73 percent have a dim view of the federal government's performance in K-12 education.
With regards to education spending, fewer than 14 percent of Latino respondents could estimate the correct per-student spending range for the national average, suggesting that Latinos need to learn more about current expenditures. Also, the survey's results show that Latinos are less likely to say public school spending is "too low."
Latino respondents were far more likely to give private schools in their communities high marks (82 percent), compared to their local public schools (50 percent). Nearly half of Latinos selected private schools as the ideal educational option for their child (46 percent), while just 32 percent of respondents chose regular public school. Just 12 percent selected charter schools and 9 percent chose homeschooling as their top choice. However, enrollment patterns in the U.S. don't match expectations. Only 3.5 percent of students enrolled in private schools are Latino, and just 4.5 percent of student in public charter schools. Researchers were unable to find reliable data regarding how many Latino students are homeschooled. Around 92 percent of Latino K-12 students attend public schools.
While 62 percent of Latinos support charter schools, 26 percent of Latino survey participants said they opposed charter schools. Nonetheless, Latinos were more likely to support charter schools than the national average. However, 53 percent of Latino respondents were against state government interventing to convert "low-performing" schools to charters schools. Instead, they believe vouchers and scholarships would be valuable contributions to affected schools and families.
More than 70 percent of Latinos favor school vouchers, and were more likely than other respondents to express an "intensely favorable view toward vouchers." Likewise, 73 percent of Latinos supported an "education savings account" system (ESA), and they were significantly more supportive of ESAs than non-Hispanic whites (57 percent). Additionally, Latino respondents were nearly five times as likely to support a tax-credit scholarship program. Moreover, Latino respondents (56 percent) voiced support of the Common Core State Standards (Common Core).
The report suggests that a candidate is more likely to win the Latino vote if they have affirming positions on school vouchers, ESAs and Common Core.
Source: Published originally on latinpost.com as US Latinos believe education is one of the nation's most important issues: Report, by Nicole Akoukou Thompson, November 10, 2015.
Where is the Wage Growth?
One of the surprising things about the current economic recovery is that while unemployment is falling, wage growth on a national level is almost non-existent (see chart below). Granted, in the berry business on the Central Coast, our labor issues are more complex as they involve economic improvement in Mexico as well as competition for workers from the hospitality and construction industries (and subsequently wages have been creeping up for the last couple of years), but nevertheless I think it's important enough to understand the bigger picture that we spend a moment on it.
Let's go then to a recent speech given by Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen, which goes some ways to explain what is happening here.
The excerpt below is pretty dense, but I'll summarize it for you in three points:
1. Wages were not cut very much during the Great Recession, meaning that they well could have been unrealistically high over the past few years of economic recovery. Which means that right now wages might have finally reached an appropriate level, so employers are still not having raise wages too much to attract qualified workers.
2. Productivity in this economic up cycle has been rising faster than wages, implying that the real cost of labor has been falling - in other words saying that while the economy is strong thanks in part to gains in productivity, wages haven't necessarily needed to follow. Importantly, looking forward, these gains in productivity may continue to persist, meaning that large wage gains might not be in the offing for quite some time into the future.
3. Conversely, watch for the possibility of wage gains even though full employment hasn't yet been reached. Some workers who have been unemployed for a while might have difficulty getting back even though they are actively looking because their skill set isn't in step with what is now needed. As communicated to me by a city official, this might in fact be the case in Watsonville, which still has an unemployment rate of around 15% even though the local agricultural economy is quite strong.
For those interested in the details, here is the excerpt:
"…since wage movements have historically been sensitive to tightness in the labor market, the recent behavior of both nominal and real wages point to weaker labor market conditions than would be indicated by the current unemployment rate.
There are three reasons, however, why we should be cautious in drawing such a conclusion. First, the sluggish pace of nominal and real wage growth in recent years may reflect the phenomenon of “pent-up wage deflation.” The evidence suggests that many firms faced significant constraints in lowering compensation during the recession and the earlier part of the recovery because of “downward nominal wage rigidity”–namely, an inability or unwillingness on the part of firms to cut nominal wages. To the extent that firms faced limits in reducing real and nominal wages when the labor market was exceptionally weak, they may find that now they do not need to raise wages to attract qualified workers. As a result, wages might rise relatively slowly as the labor market strengthens. If pent-up wage deflation is holding down wage growth, the current very moderate wage growth could be a misleading signal of the degree of remaining slack. Further, wages could begin to rise at a noticeably more rapid pace once pent-up wage deflation has been absorbed.
Second, wage developments reflect not only cyclical but also secular trends that have likely affected the evolution of labor's share of income in recent years. As I noted, real wages have been rising less rapidly than productivity, implying that real unit labor costs have been declining, a pattern suggesting that there is scope for nominal wages to accelerate from their recent pace without creating meaningful inflationary pressure. However, research suggests that the decline in real unit labor costs may partly reflect secular factors that predate the recession, including changing patterns of production and international trade, as well as measurement issues. If so, productivity growth could continue to outpace real wage gains even when the economy is again operating at its potential.
A third issue that complicates the interpretation of wage trends is the possibility that, because of the dislocations of the Great Recession, transitory wage and price pressures could emerge well before maximum sustainable employment has been reached, although they would abate over time as the economy moves back toward maximum employment. The argument is that workers who have suffered long-term unemployment–along with, perhaps, those who have dropped out of the labor force but would return to work in a stronger economy–face significant impediments to reemployment. In this case, further improvement in the labor market could entail stronger wage pressures for a time before maximum employment has been attained.
H/T http://www.thereformedbroker.com/
Thanks Josh!
Chart of the day
Immigration is not the top issue for Hispanics
Immigration reform “now occupies almost all the Latino policy agenda, sucking up, as one colleague recently put it, all the oxygen on Latino issues,” according to a recent commentary from Angelo Falcón, National Institute for Latino Policy president.
Indeed, when Pew Research Center has surveyed the Hispanic community, there are several issues that consistently rank higher on the list than immigration. In 2013, some 57% of Hispanic registered voters called education an “extremely important” issue facing the nation today. That's compared with jobs and the economy (52%) and health care (43%). Just 32% said immigration.
Since 2007, about one-third of Hispanic registered voters have called immigration an “extremely important” issue to them personally. Even among Hispanic immigrants, the share was 35% in 2012.
While about seven-in-ten of all Latinos in 2013 said it was important for Congress to pass significant new immigration legislation that year, the share who said so was higher among immigrants (80%) than among the U.S. born (57%). Among the general public, 49% of U.S. adults said so when asked the same question in February.
In some respects, Hispanics' focus on education as a top issue makes sense. In 2010, Hispanics had the highest birth rates—80 births per 1,000 women of childbearing age, compared with 64 for blacks, 59 for whites and 56 for Asians. Fully one-in-three (33%) Hispanics are school age (under 18), compared with one-in-five (20%) whites.
The economy has been another top issue among Hispanics, who said the recession hit them harder than other groups. Among Hispanics in 2012, the economy and jobs (54%) ranked about as high as education (55%) as an issue “extremely important” to them personally. The unemployment rate among Hispanics peaked at 12.3% in 2010, compared with 8.9% among non-Hispanics. The unemployment rate for Hispanics has steadily fallen since then (8.9% in 2013), but remains above pre-recession levels (4.9% in 2006).
Source: Pew Research Center, Top issue for Hispanics? Hint: It's not immigration,by Jens Manuel Krogstad, June 2, 2014.