- Author: Ben Faber
From the Avocado Hass Board:
Avocado World Market Projection Up to 2030
A global study of the complex factors influencing the supply and demand of avocados around the world reveals challenges and opportunities on the horizon.
At the current pace, there will likely be a surplus by 2030 so research has been updated to evaluate ways for the industry to act now including stepping up demand creation to stay competitive.
Eric Imbert, a lead researcher from CIRAD, French Agricultural Research Center for International Development, reviews the quickly evolving trends and his three key pieces of advice for the global industry.
ERIC IMBERT
CIRAD: French Agricultural Research Center for International Development
- Author: Saoimanu Sope
Growing up in Ethiopia, Etaferahu Takele was faced with a dilemma: School or marriage? Those were the choices Takele's father gave her when she was 13 years old. Takele, UC Cooperative Extension farm management and agricultural economics advisor for Southern California, said her ultimate choice changed the trajectory of her life.
Takele has made a career of researching how farm products and farming practices translate into profitability for farmers. She works closely with UCCE farm advisors, helping them understand the factors that affect the economics of crop production, and enabling them to better support growers in the area.
Throughout her career, she has published many cost studies for growers that focus on crops like vegetables, citrus and avocados. In her role, she also analyzes new crop economics and potential profitability, and compares profitability and cost to alternative production practices.
In Ethiopia, it is common and expected for young women to marry before high school, sacrificing the opportunity to continue their education. Takele's father let his oldest daughter decide what her next steps would be. “I want to go to school,” Takele told him.
Takele was the only female student in her elementary school classes. Similarly, she was the only female graduate student when she began her studies at North Dakota State University.
“It was funny,” Takele said. “I remember in graduate school, the department chair wanted to introduce me to the rest of the students, and he took me upstairs. The students were surprised to see me. They were waiting for a man, and probably a white one.”
Takele was born in Dessie, about 250 miles north of Ethiopia's capital, Addis Ababa, but was raised in the country in a village called Kutaber. In addition to her father's business as a farmer, a visit to an agricultural school stimulated her interest in agriculture.
“I saw the milking of the cows and all the technology, and it was really fascinating,” said Takele, who also helped her father with accounting for his farm, which sparked her interest in the business side of agriculture.
In 1981, immediately following graduation from North Dakota State University with her master's degree in agricultural economics, Takele joined UC Agriculture and Natural Resources. “I'm one of the old timers,” she said.
“Extension was organized differently at the time that I started. Cooperative Extension was a separate unit with its own academics organized by discipline,” said Takele. “There weren't any women in the agricultural economics unit of Cooperative Extension at that time. I was the only one, until another woman, Karen Klonsky, joined six months later.”
Aside from her love for numbers, Takele says she truly enjoys the extension part of her job. “I like the applied aspect because I get to see my research and analysis help growers make profitable farm management decisions,” she explained.
Thirteen years into her career with UC ANR, Takele earned a master's degree in economics from UC Riverside. In 2008, Takele graduated from the prestigious California Agricultural Leadership Program, and served as UCCE director for Riverside County from 2007 to 2020.
With many years of UC ANR service, and counting, Takele said that being a role model to her siblings, cousins, nieces and nephews, is her driving force.
“In my culture, there is an obligation to help those that come after you,” she said. Aligned with this value is her desire to open opportunities, just like her father did for her. “I have always been focused,” Takele said. “And it all started with that choice he gave me.”
- Posted by: Guy B Kyser
From New York Times, 3 October 2020 - A sad story about a poisonous invasive weed.
- Author: Ben Faber
Here's an example of the kind of information that can be both exciting and disappointing - forecasts of the future of the citrus and avocado industries and many other fruit and nut crops. The latest forecasts are available form the USDA - Economic Research Service:
https://www.ers.usda.gov/webdocs/publications/92731/fts-368.pdf?v=7239.3
Wednesday, April 24, 2019
Imports play a significant role in meeting the U.S. demand for avocados. Since the mid-1990s, imports of avocados have grown sharply as per capita consumption has grown, representing 87 percent of domestic use in the 2017/18 marketing year. USDA forecasts that imports will make up an even larger share of supply in 2018/19, mainly because California's crop is expected to be smaller than in recent years. Contributing factors to this reduced crop include record-breaking heatwaves in July 2018 followed by record-breaking wildfires, as well as recent rains and cold weather, and the general alternate-year-bearing nature of avocado trees (whereby a large crop one year is followed by a smaller crop the next year). Because over 80 percent of all U.S.-produced avocados each year are from California, California's low harvest in 2018/19 should boost U.S. demand for imported avocados (especially from Mexico) even higher than it has been in recent years. If USDA's forecast is realized, imports in 2018/19 will represent 93 percent of the domestic avocado supply. This chart appears in the ERS Fruit and Tree Nuts Outlook newsletter, released in March 2019.
Fruit & Tree Nuts
Provides current intelligence and forecasts the effects of changing conditions in the U.S. fruit and tree nuts sector. Topics include production, consumption, shipments, trade, prices received, and more.
https://www.ers.usda.gov/webdocs/publications/92731/fts-368.pdf?v=7239.3
Can the past foretell the future?
/h3>/h2>- Author: Lynn M. Sosnoskie
The California Department of Food and Agriculture's (CDFA) recently released statistics review (https://www.cdfa.ca.gov/statistics/) reports that California led the nation in 2017 agricultural cash receipts ($50 billion) followed by Iowa ($27 billion), Texas ($23 billion), Nebraska ($21 billion), and Minnesota ($17 billion). California's (CA) top commodities were dairy ($6.6 billion, up 8.2% from the previous year), grapes ($5.8 billion, up 3.1%), and almonds ($5.6 billion, up 10.9%), followed by berries, cattle and calves, lettuce, walnuts, tomatoes, pistachios, and broilers. With respect to agronomic commodities, hay (all) and cotton (all) were ranked 13th ($758 million) and 18th ($475 million), respectively. Compared to the rest of the United States (US), California was ranked first in the nation for hay value (CA share of US receipts: 11.9%) and third in the nation for cotton lint value (CA share of US receipts: 7%). Silage hay was the 14th most valuable commodity (gross value) in California at $871 million. Wheat ($107 million), grain corn ($103 million), and irrigated pasture ($101 million) were ranked 51st, 52nd, and 53rd, respectively. Cotton seed ($83 million) was ranked 58th and dry beans ($72 million) were ranked 61st. Grain hay ($67 million) and Sudan hay ($66 million) were ranked 63rd and 64th, respectively.
The top agricultural county in the state was Kern ($7.3 billion), followed by Tulare ($7.0 billion), Fresno ($7.0 billion), Monterey ($4.4 billion), Stanislaus ($3.6 billion), Merced ($3.4 billion), San Joaquin ($2.5 billion), Ventura ($2.1 billion), Kings ($2.1 billion), and Imperial ($2.1 billion); Madera County ranked 11th ($2.0 billion). Merced County's leading commodities were: milk, almonds, chickens, and cattle and calves; Madera County's leading commodities were almonds, milk, pistachios, and wine grapes. Within California, and with respect to agronomic crops, Merced is the second leading county (behind Imperial) for alfalfa hay gross value ($115 million) and third (behind Kings and Fresno) for cotton lint ($78 million). Merced county is also ranked third for silage ($128 million), fifth for grain corn ($8 million) and irrigated pasture ($5 million) and sudan hay ($3 million), and first for grain hay ($17 million).
Other SJV counties are also important producers of agronomic commodities (according to gross value). Kern and Tulare counties are ranked third and fourth, respectively, for alfalfa hay values. With respect to silage, Tulare is ranked first, Fresno is second, Kern is fourth and Tulare is fifth. Kings County is the number one county with respect to cotton lint value, followed by Fresno; Kern and Tulare counties are ranked fourth and fifth, respectively. With respect to irrigated pasture gross value, Tulare and Stanislaus counties are ranked first and second. Fresno County is second for grain hay gross value and Stanislaus is ranked fifth. For Sudan hay, Tulare county is ranked third and Stanislaus county is ranked fourth. Fresno, Kings, Tulare and San Joaquin Counties rank second, third, fourth , and fifth, respectively, for wheat gross value. For dry beans, Fresno is ranked first, followed by Stanislaus, Tulare, and San Joaquin.