- Author: nbcnews.com by Suzanne Gamboa
In the next presidential election, 32 million Hispanics will be eligible to vote, just slightly more than the 30 million voters who are black.
For the first time, Hispanics are on track to be the largest racial or ethnic group to be eligible to vote in a presidential election, according to data on the 2020 electorate released Wednesday by the Pew Research Center.
By 2020, 32 million Hispanics will be eligible to vote, just slightly more than the 30 million voters who are black. For Asians, the population is expected to be about 11 million, more than double what it was in 2000.
According to Pew, Hispanics are projected to be about 13.3 percent of the electorate in 2020, which would make them the largest racial or ethnic minority of the electorate for the first time. In 2016, Hispanics were 11.9 percent of the electorate; African-Americans were 12.5 percent and are projected to remain the same in 2020.
Voters who are of Asian descent are projected to be about 4.7 percent of the electorate.
White voters will continue to make up the largest share of the electorate, 66.7 percent, but the Latino and Asian growth mean that in 2020 about a third of eligible voters will be nonwhite.
Immigration is playing a role, although it is a small one. One-in-10 eligible voters will be foreign-born in 2020, the highest share since 1970.
The share that is eligible to vote does not necessarily transfer to turnout. In recent elections, black voters were “substantially more likely” than Hispanics to vote, Pew stated.
The number of Latinos who don't vote, in fact, has been greater than the number who do in every presidential election since 1996, according to Pew.
Also projected for 2020:
- One-in-10 eligible voters will be members of Generation Z, the generation younger than millennials, who will be 18 to 23 next year.
- Nearly a quarter, 23 percent of the electorate, will be 65 and older, the highest share since the Baby Boom.
- The millennial share of the electorate is increasing because of foreign-born millennials who are naturalizing to become citizens, but they will account for a slightly smaller share of the electorate than in 2016.
Source: Published originally on nbcnews.com, Latinos on track to be largest share of nonwhite voters in 2020, Pew says, by Suzanne Gamboa, January 30th, 2019.
During the 2016 U.S. presidential election, the number of Latino voters increased 13 percent over 2012, reaching a record high of nearly 13 million. Latinos are now poised to affect key districts in the midterm elections. However, it will require successful mobilization and investment efforts in order to harness the full strength of the Latino electorate, said the study's author, Mindy Romero, of the California Civic Engagement Project, or CCEP.
The CCEP and UnidosUS will be presenting their latest research at a press briefing, “Latino Tipping Point: How Latinos Are Poised to Impact Key Districts in the Midterm Elections,” Wednesday, June 20, 10 a.m. EDT, at the National Press Club, 529 14th St. NW, Washington DC, 20045. Romero, CCEP founder and director, and Clarissa Martinez de Castro, deputy vice president, UnidosUS, will present the findings.
During the briefing, representatives from UnidosUS and UC Davis will reveal key research findings, including a profile of the Latino voter and predictions of competitive districts where the Latino electorate can have a strong showing at the ballot box. Study findings are based on an analysis of American Community Survey and Catalist voter data.
Strength of the Latino vote
Some highlights from the research on the vote include:
- Latinos currently make up 17.8 percent of the nation's total population at 57.4 million
- 60 percent of the Latino population are under age 35, making Latinos the youngest major ethnic or racial group in the country
- Latino voters still experience electoral underrepresentation and need to be mobilized to not only register to vote but also vote
- The Latino share of the U.S. vote will grow significantly over the next few decades
Source: Published originally on UC Davis News, UnidosUS and UC Davis Examine Strength of the Latino Vote , by Karen Nikos-Rose on June 18, 2018.
Future increases in the Latino and Asian populations will vary significantly in size and location across California, meaning that changes in the strength of Latino and Asian voter growth will be uneven across the state in the coming decades.
California's eligible electorate will dramatically change over the next 30 years. If projections hold, it will gain 8.3 million new eligible voters – 8 million of which will be people of color (non-white). By sheer population change, the state will shift from an electorate historically (and still currently) proportionately dominated by non-Latino whites. Already by the 2016 elections, California is projected to have a majority-minority electorate.
For the first time, non-Latino whites will fall below 50 percent of the state's eligible voters. By 2040, Latinos and Asians combined are projected to be just over 50 percent of California's actual voters (assuming parity with non-Latino and non-Asian turnout rates) – and over 60 percent of the vote in many counties within the state.
However, an increased share of the state's vote does not automatically mean a representative democracy for California. If disparities in eligible voter turnout rates remain, then Latinos and Asians in the state are projected to continue to hold a share of the vote that is not commensurate with their proportion of the eligible citizen voting age population. If new eligible non-white voters are not transitioned into actual voters at a rate that is at least on pace with their increasing proportions of the electorate then the state's voting population could become even less representative.
Mobilizing California's Eligible Non-Voters
As the landscape of the state's electorate shifts, it is likely that its political landscape will change as well. A larger political voice for historically underrepresented groups matters. Recent national level research supports the conclusion that those who vote in the current electorate often do not represent the views of those who don't vote, particularity on issues related to economic policy. Current voters tend to be more conservative on issues of resource distribution than non-voters. As the make-up of California's voting electorate changes over time, the interests and needs of its new members may push the state's political structure to adjust its issue priorities.
Achieving a fully participating electorate is critical to ensuring a fully representative and responsive democratic system for California.
Source: UC Davis Center for Regional Change, The California Civic Engagement Project, The Future of California Electorate (Policy Brief, Issue 7) by Mindy Romero, January 2014.
- Author: voxxi.com by Griselda Nevarez
The report, titled American Latino Agenda Report, put together by a number of Latino organizations with expertise on various issues, like education, health care and immigration.
“We don't try to reinvent the wheel,” Ana-Maria Fernandez Haar, chair of the NAA Institute board, told VOXXI. “What we try to do is bring different experts from different fields so that we can take advantage of the best of each other's thinking.”
The report comes as the November midterm elections approach. NAA Institute members say they hope the report will help candidates understand that immigration is not the only issue Latinos care about. They also say the report is meant to “spur a more strategic and informed dialogue on the full integration of American Latinos in the national agenda and priorities.”
A look inside the American Latino Agenda Report
One of the first main issues addressed in the report is the need to build the power of the Latino vote. This portion of the report calls for more outreach and engagement efforts focused on low-propensity voters as well as the need to modernize and strengthen federal voting rights protections. In addition, NALEO calls for the need to build a political infrastructure that provides Latinos an opportunity to run for office and have access to resources that will mount to viable campaigns.
At a time when the immigration issue has been making headlines, the report calls for an immigration system that would maximize the economic contributions that immigrant make and that would legally admit more immigrants who can fuel the U.S. economy. This portion of the report, put together by the American Immigration Council, also calls for a pathway to citizenship for undocumented immigrants with strong ties to the U.S.
On education, several different organizations pitched a menu of recommendations. For example, the White House Initiative on Educational Excellence for Hispanics advocates for better access to early learning programs and more investment to make college more affordable for low income, first generation and undocumented students.
The Hispanic Association of Colleges and Universities also calls for addressing the socio-economic issues the create barriers to educational attainment for Hispanics. It also calls for the need to increase federal funding for Hispanic-Serving Institutions and making Hispanic educational access and success a national priority.
And Excelencia in Education states that there should be more investment in evidence-based strategies that increase college and career readiness as well as college completion. It also highlights the need for more ways to increase financial literacy and opportunities for financial aid to make college more affordable for Latino students.
On health care, the National Hispanic Medical Association states that there are systematic barriers to health care access, availability and affordability for Latinos. It also notes that health care disparities among Latinos exist due to lack of culturally competent care and education about disease prevention programs. Among the group's recommendations are increasing Latino representation in major health professions and filling the void in Congress' education regarding the health care issues that impact Latinos.
To view the full American Latino Agenda Report, visit the NAA website or click here.
Source: Published originally on voxxi.com as New America Alliance rolls out report on issues affecting Latinos, by Griselda Nevarez, August 7, 2014.