After four decades of rapid growth, the number of Latino immigrants in the U.S. reached a record 18.8 million in 2010, but has since stalled, according to a Pew Research Center analysis of U.S. Census Bureau data. Since 2000, the U.S.-born Latino population continued to grow at a faster rate than the immigrant population. As a result, the foreign-born share of Latinos is now in decline.
Among Hispanic adults in 2012, 49.8% were born in another country, down from a peak of 55% in 2007. Among all Hispanics, the share foreign-born was 35.5% in 2012, down from about 40% earlier in the 2000s.
The slowdown in growth of the Hispanic foreign-born population coincides with a decline in Mexican migration to the U.S. Today, about as many people from Mexico are leaving the U.S. as entering, after four decades of explosive growth. Many factors have played a role in this trend, including the U.S. economic downturn, stepped-up border enforcement, growing dangers associated with illegal border crossings and demographic and economic changes in Mexico.
Even as the share of Latino immigrants decreases, rapid growth in the number of Latino births means the Latino population will continue to grow at a steady clip. Latinos are the nation's largest minority, and one of its fastest growing. Since 1970, the Latino population has increased six fold, from 9.1 million to 53 million by 2012. It is projected to grow to 129 million by 2060, according to the latest projections from the U.S. Census Bureau. Its share of the U.S. population, currently at 17%, is expected to reach 31% by 2060.
Between 1980 and 2000, immigration was the main driver of Latino population growth as the Latino immigrant population boomed from 4.2 million to 14.1 million. However since 2000, the primary source of Hispanic population growth has swung from immigration to native births. Between 2000 and 2010, there were 9.6 million Hispanic births in the U.S., while the number of newly arrived immigrants was 6.5 million. Overall, U.S. births alone accounted for 60% of Hispanic population growth (births and immigration only during the period.)
These opposing trends—the rise of U.S.-born and the slowdown in immigrant population growth—have begun to reshape the adult Hispanic population. Just as the slowdown in immigration has occurred, the number of U.S.-born Hispanics entering adulthood is beginning to accelerate. Today, some 800,000 young U.S.-born Hispanics enter adulthood each year, but in the coming decades, that number will rise to more than a million annually.
Accompanying this report is a statistical portrait of the nation's Hispanic population and a statistical portrait of the nation's foreign-born population. Both are based on the Census Bureau's 2012 American Community Survey and feature detailed characteristics of each population at the national level, as well as state population totals. Topics covered include age, citizenship, origin, language proficiency, living arrangements, marital status, fertility, schooling, health insurance coverage, and employment.
Source: Pew Research Center, “Hispanic Nativity Shift” by Jens Manuel Krogstad and Mark Hugo Lopez, April 29, 2014