Daniel Swain

Daniel Swain

Climate Scientist (Associate Researcher)

Ph.D. Earth System Science, Stanford University. 2016
B.S. Atmospheric Science, University of California, Davis. 2011
Meteorological extremes, Dynamics & impacts of regional climate change, Hydroclimate extremes, Wildfires & climate change, Extreme event detection & attribution, Natural hazard & disaster risk, Climate adaptation, Science communication

Daniel Swain, Ph.D., is a climate scientist focused on the dynamics and impacts of extreme events—including droughts, floods, storms, and wildfires—on a warming planet. Daniel holds joint appointments as a climate scientist within the California Institute for Water Resources within University of California Agriculture and Natural Resources (UCANR) and as a research partner at the NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research.

He engages extensively with journalists as a recurring expert source—averaging over 200 interviews per year across hundreds of news outlets—helping make extreme weather, climate change, and associated natural hazards accessible and accurate in public discourse. Daniel is an alumnus of the University of California, Davis (B.S., Atmospheric Science) and of Stanford University (Ph.D., Earth System Science), and completed his postdoctoral work at UCLA. He also authors the widely-read Weather West blog (weatherwest.com), which provides real-time perspectives on California weather and climate, and can be found on Twitter (@Weather_West), Bluesky (@WeatherWest) and YouTube (@WeatherWest). His publications can be found via Google Scholar, ResearchGate, and ORCID.

Peer reviewed

  • Kalashnikov, Dmitri A.; Abatzoglou, John T.; Swain, Daniel L. (2026). "Climatology and trends of annual maximum subdaily precipitation in the Western United States." Weather and Climate Extremes 53: 100915.
  • Munoz-Castro, E.; Anderson, B. J.; Astagneau, P. C.; Swain, D. L.; Mendoza, P. A.; Brunner, M. I. (2026). "How well do hydrological models simulate streamflow extremes and drought-to-flood transitions?" Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. 30(3): 825-848.
  • Lee, Pamela S.; Swain, Daniel L.; Johnson, Royce (2025). "Climate Change and Coccidioidomycosis." JAMA 333(11): 997-998.
  • Swain, Daniel L.; Prein, Andreas F.; Abatzoglou, John T.; Albano, Christine M.; Brunner, Manuela; Diffenbaugh, Noah S.; Singh, Deepti; Skinner, Christopher B.; Touma, Danielle (2025). "Hydroclimate volatility on a warming Earth." Nature Reviews Earth & Environment 6(1): 35-50.
  • Camponuri, S. K.; Heaney, A. K.; Cooksey, G. S.; Vugia, D. J.; Jain, S.; Swain, D. L.; Balmes, J.; Remais, J. V.; Head, J. R. (2025). "Recent and Forecasted Increases in Coccidioidomycosis Incidence Linked to Hydroclimatic Swings, California, USA." Emerg Infect Dis 31(5): 1028-1032.
  • Swain, Daniel L.; Abatzoglou, John T.; Kolden, Crystal; Shive, Kristen; Kalashnikov, Dmitri A.; Singh, Deepti; Smith, Edward (2023). "Climate change is narrowing and shifting prescribed fire windows in western United States." Communications Earth & Environment 4(1): 340.
  • Touma, D.; Stevenson, S.; Swain, D. L.; Singh, D.; Kalashnikov, D. A.; Huang, X. (2022). "Climate change increases risk of extreme rainfall following wildfire in the western United States." Sci Adv 8(13): eabm0320.
  • Huang, X.; Swain, D. L. (2022). "Climate change is increasing the risk of a California megaflood." Sci Adv 8(32): eabq0995.
  • Kalashnikov, D. A.; Schnell, J. L.; Abatzoglou, J. T.; Swain, D. L.; Singh, D. (2022). "Increasing co-occurrence of fine particulate matter and ground-level ozone extremes in the western United States." Sci Adv 8(1): eabi9386.
  • Fish, Meredith A.; Done, James M.; Swain, Daniel L.; Wilson, Anna M.; Michaelis, Allison C.; Gibson, Peter B.; Ralph, F. Martin (2022). "Large-Scale Environments of Successive Atmospheric River Events Leading to Compound Precipitation Extremes in California." Journal of Climate 35(5): 1515-1536.
  • Kalashnikov, Dmitri A.; Abatzoglou, John T.; Nauslar, Nicholas J.; Swain, Daniel L.; Touma, Danielle; Singh, Deepti (2022). "Meteorological and geographical factors associated with dry lightning in central and northern California." Environmental Research: Climate 1(2): 025001.
  • Gonzales, Katerina R.; Swain, Daniel L.; Roop, Heidi A.; Diffenbaugh, Noah S. (2022). "Quantifying the Relationship Between Atmospheric River Origin Conditions and Landfall Temperature." Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 127(20): e2022JD037284.
  • Swain, Daniel L. (2021). "A Shorter, Sharper Rainy Season Amplifies California Wildfire Risk." Geophysical Research Letters 48(5): e2021GL092843.
  • Brunner, Manuela I.; Swain, Daniel L.; Wood, Raul R.; Willkofer, Florian; Done, James M.; Gilleland, Eric; Ludwig, Ralf (2021). "An extremeness threshold determines the regional response of floods to changes in rainfall extremes." Communications Earth & Environment 2(1): 173.
  • Goldenson, N.; Thackeray, C. W.; Hall, A. D.; Swain, D. L.; Berg, N. (2021). "Using Large Ensembles to Identify Regions of Systematic Biases in Moderate-to-Heavy Daily Precipitation." Geophysical Research Letters 48(9): e2020GL092026.
  • Swain, Daniel L.; Singh, Deepti; Touma, Danielle; Diffenbaugh, Noah S. (2020). "Attributing Extreme Events to Climate Change: A New Frontier in a Warming World." One Earth 2(6): 522-527.
  • Goss, Michael; Swain, Daniel L.; Abatzoglou, John T.; Sarhadi, Ali; Kolden, Crystal A.; Williams, A. Park; Diffenbaugh, Noah S. (2020). "Climate change is increasing the likelihood of extreme autumn wildfire conditions across California." Environmental Research Letters 15(9): 094016.
  • Huang, Xingying; Swain, Daniel L.; Hall, Alex D. (2020). "Future precipitation increase from very high resolution ensemble downscaling of extreme atmospheric river storms in California." Science Advances 6(29): eaba1323.
  • Swain, D. L.; Wing, O. E. J.; Bates, P. D.; Done, J. M.; Johnson, K. A.; Cameron, D. R. (2020). "Increased Flood Exposure Due to Climate Change and Population Growth in the United States." Earth's Future 8(11): e2020EF001778.
  • Manuela Irene, Brunner; Daniel, L. Swain; Eric, Gilleland; Andrew, Wood (2020). "Increasing importance of temperature as a contributor to the spatial extent of streamflow drought." Environmental Research Letters.
  • Persad, Geeta G.; Swain, Daniel L.; Kouba, Claire; Ortiz-Partida, J. Pablo (2020). "Inter-model agreement on projected shifts in California hydroclimate characteristics critical to water management." Climatic Change 162(3): 1493-1513.
  • Gonzales, Katerina R.; Swain, Daniel L.; Barnes, Elizabeth A.; Diffenbaugh, Noah S. (2020). "Moisture- Versus Wind-Dominated Flavors of Atmospheric Rivers." Geophysical Research Letters 47(23): e2020GL090042.
  • Abatzoglou, John T.; Smith, Craig M.; Swain, Daniel L.; Ptak, Thomas; Kolden, Crystal A. (2020). "Population exposure to pre-emptive de-energization aimed at averting wildfires in Northern California." Environmental Research Letters 15(9): 094046.
  • Huang, Xingying; Swain, Daniel L.; Walton, Daniel B.; Stevenson, Samantha; Hall, Alex D. (2020). "Simulating and Evaluating Atmospheric River-Induced Precipitation Extremes Along the U.S. Pacific Coast: Case Studies From 1980â??2017." Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 125(4): e2019JD031554.
  • Brunner, Manuela I.; Gilleland, Eric; Wood, Andy; Swain, Daniel L.; Clark, Martyn (2020). "Spatial Dependence of Floods Shaped by Spatiotemporal Variations in Meteorological and Land-Surface Processes." Geophysical Research Letters 47(13): e2020GL088000.
  • Gonzales, Katerina R.; Swain, Daniel L.; Nardi, Kyle M.; Barnes, Elizabeth A.; Diffenbaugh, Noah S. (2019). "Recent Warming of Landfalling Atmospheric Rivers Along the West Coast of the United States." Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 124(13): 6810-6826.
  • Gibson, Peter B.; Waliser, Duane E.; Guan, Bin; DeFlorio, Michael J.; Ralph, F. Martin; Swain, Daniel L. (2019). "Ridging associated with drought across the Western and Southwestern United States: characteristics, trends and predictability sources." Journal of Climate.
  • Anenberg, Susan C.; Dutton, Andrea; Goulet, Christine A.; Swain, Daniel L.; van der Pluijm, Ben (2019). "Toward a Resilient Global Society: Air, Sea Level, Earthquakes, and Weather." Earth's Future 7(8): 854-864.
  • Danielle Touma; Anna M. Michalak; Daniel L. Swain; Noah S. Diffenbaugh (2018). "Characterizing the Spatial Scales of Extreme Daily Precipitation in the United States." Journal of Climate 31(19): 8023-8037.
  • Swain, Daniel L.; Langenbrunner, Baird; Neelin, J. David; Hall, Alex (2018). "Increasing precipitation volatility in twenty-first-century California." Nature Climate Change 8(5): 427-433.
  • Thackeray, Chad W.; DeAngelis, Anthony M.; Hall, Alex; Swain, Daniel L.; Qu, Xin (2018). "On the Connection Between Global Hydrologic Sensitivity and Regional Wet Extremes." Geophysical Research Letters 45(20): 11,343-11,351.
  • Diffenbaugh, Noah S.; Singh, Deepti; Mankin, Justin S.; Horton, Daniel E.; Swain, Daniel L.; Touma, Danielle; Charland, Allison; Liu, Yunjie; Haugen, Matz; Tsiang, Michael; Rajaratnam, Bala (2017). "Quantifying the influence of global warming on unprecedented extreme climate events." Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 114(19): 4881.
  • Swain, Daniel L.; Singh, Deepti; Horton, Daniel E.; Mankin, Justin S.; Ballard, Tristan C.; Diffenbaugh, Noah S. (2017). "Remote linkages to anomalous winter atmospheric ridging over the northeastern Pacific." Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres n/a-n/a.
  • Singh, Deepti; Swain, Daniel L.; Mankin, Justin S.; Horton, Daniel E.; Thomas, Leif N.; Rajaratnam, Bala; Diffenbaugh, Noah S. (2016). "Recent amplification of the North American winter temperature dipole." Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 121(17): 9911-9928.
  • Swain, DL; Horton, DE; Singh, D; Diffenbaugh, NS (2016). "Trends in atmospheric patterns conducive to seasonal precipitation and temperature extremes in California." Science Advances 2(4): e1501344-e1501344.
  • Swain, Daniel L. (2015). "A tale of two California droughts: Lessons amidst record warmth and dryness in a region of complex physical and human geography." Geophysical Research Letters 42(22): 9999-10003.
  • Diffenbaugh, Noah S.; Swain, Daniel L.; Touma, Danielle (2015). "Anthropogenic warming has increased drought risk in California." Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 112(13): 3931-3936.
  • Horton, DE; Johnson, NC; Singh, D; Swain, DL; Rajaratnam, B; Diffenbaugh, NS (2015). "Contribution of changes in atmospheric circulation patterns to extreme temperature trends." Nature 522(7557): 465-+.
  • Swain, DL; Lebassi-Habtezion, B; Diffenbaugh, NS (2015). "Evaluation of Nonhydrostatic Simulations of Northeast Pacific Atmospheric Rivers and Comparison to in Situ Observations." Monthly Weather Review 143(9): 3556-3569.
  • Swain, Daniel L; Tsiang, Michael; Haugen, Matz; Singh, Deepti; Charland, Allison; Rajaratnam, Bala; Diffenbaugh, Noah S (2014). "The extraordinary California drought of 2013/2014: Character, context, and the role of climate change." Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc 95(9): S3-S7.

Non-peer reviewed

  • Swain, Daniel L. (2026). "El Niño 2026-2027: A Potentially Historic Global Climate Event" factsheet. California Institute for Water Resources, University of California Agriculture and Natural Resources. https://ucanr.edu/blog/green-blog/article/elninofacts
  • Swain, Daniel L. (2026). Extraordinary and prolonged March heatwave to break records and decimate mountain snowpack across U.S. Southwest, including much of California. Weather West blog post. March 11. https://weatherwest.com/archives/43745
  • Swain, Daniel L. (2026). Special update: Rising odds of a strong-to-historic El Niño event in 2026, with growing likelihood of significant regional-to-global scale impacts. Weather West blog post. June 11. https://weatherwest.com/archives/43880
  • Kreibich, Heidi; Swain, Daniel L.; Chang, Fi-John; Reichstein, Markus; Benson, Vitus; Holden, Petra; Yang, Tiantian; Sultana, Farhana; Funk, Chris; Kobei, Daniel (2026). "Stewardship under shifting drought baselines." One Earth 9(5): 101707.
  • Swain, Daniel L. (2026). "Strong human fingerprint on low snowpack amid increasing volatility." Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 123(33): e2620765123.
  • Swain, Daniel L.; Stephens, Jilmarie J. (2026). "Wet-to-Dry Cascades May Increasingly Drive Wildfire Activity in Non-Forested Ecosystems, and Further Amplify the Risk of Urban Interface Fire Disasters, in a Warming Climate." Global Change Biology 32(1): e70681.
  • Swain, Daniel L. (2025). As extreme California precipitation dipole persists, a high-end offshore wind/fire weather event may unfold in SoCal this week. Weather West blog post. January 4. https://weatherwest.com/archives/43171
  • Swain, D.L. (2025). Debatable: How to fight climate change [Should the world shift away from curbing emissions in the fight against climate change? Absolutely not.]. Semafor. Chalfant, M. 11/14. https://www.semafor.com/article/11/13/2025/debatable-how-to-fight-climate-change
  • Swain, Daniel L. (2025). Hydroclimate volatility on a warming Earth. Weather West blog post. January 15. https://weatherwest.com/archives/43181
  • Swain, Daniel L.; Abatzoglou, John T.; Albano, Christine M.; Brunner, Manuela I.; Diffenbaugh, Noah S.; Kolden, Crystal; Prein, Andreas F.; Singh, Deepti; Skinner, Christopher B.; Swetnam, Thomas W.; Touma, Danielle (2025). "Increasing Hydroclimatic Whiplash Can Amplify Wildfire Risk in a Warming Climate." Global Change Biology 31(2): e70075.
  • Swain, D. (2023). "Climate researchers need support to become scientist-communicators." Nature 624(7990): 9.