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Posts Tagged: environment
Floods, droughts, then fires: Hydroclimate whiplash is speeding up globally
New research links intensifying wet and dry swings to the atmosphere's sponge-like ability to drop and absorb water
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Key takeaways
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Los Angeles is burning, and accelerating hydroclimate whiplash is the key climate connection.
After years of severe drought, dozens of atmospheric rivers deluged California with record-breaking precipitation in the winter of 2022-23, burying mountain towns in snow, flooding valleys with rain and snow melt, and setting off hundreds of landslides.
Following a second extremely wet winter in southern parts of the state, resulting in abundant grass and brush, 2024 brought a record-hot summer and now a record-dry start to the 2025 rainy season, along with tinder-dry vegetation that has since burned in a series of damaging wildfires.
This is just the most recent example of the kind of “hydroclimate whiplash” – rapid swings between intensely wet and dangerously dry weather – that is increasing worldwide, according to a paper published Jan. 9 in Nature Reviews.
“The evidence shows that hydroclimate whiplash has already increased due to global warming, and further warming will bring about even larger increases,” said lead author Daniel Swain, a climate scientist with UC Agriculture and Natural Resources and UCLA. “This whiplash sequence in California has increased fire risk twofold: first, by greatly increasing the growth of flammable grass and brush in the months leading up to fire season, and then by drying it out to exceptionally high levels with the extreme dryness and warmth that followed.”
Global weather records show hydroclimate whiplash has swelled globally by 31% to 66% since the mid-20th century, the international team of climate researchers found – even more than climate models suggest should have happened. Climate change means the rate of increase is speeding up. The same potentially conservative climate models project that the whiplash will more than double if global temperatures rise 3 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. The world is already poised to blast past the Paris Agreement's targeted limit of 1.5 C. The researchers synthesized hundreds of previous scientific papers for the review, layering their own analysis on top.
Anthropogenic climate change is the culprit behind the accelerating whiplash, and a key driver is the “expanding atmospheric sponge” – the growing ability of the atmosphere to evaporate, absorb and release 7% more water for every degree Celsius the planet warms, researchers said.
“The problem is that the sponge grows exponentially, like compound interest in a bank,” Swain said. “The rate of expansion increases with each fraction of a degree of warming.”
The global consequences of hydroclimate whiplash include not only floods and droughts, but the heightened danger of whipsawing between the two, including the bloom-and-burn cycle of overwatered then overdried brush, and landslides on oversaturated hillsides where recent fires removed plants with roots to knit the soil and slurp up rainfall. Every fraction of a degree of warming speeds the growing destructive power of the transitions, Swain said.
Many previous studies of climate whiplash have only considered the precipitation side of the equation, and not the growing evaporative demand. The thirstier atmosphere pulls more water out of plants and soil, exacerbating drought conditions beyond simple lack of rainfall.
“The expanding atmospheric sponge effect may offer a unifying explanation for some of the most visible, visceral impacts of climate change that recently seem to have accelerated,” Swain said. “The planet is warming at an essentially linear pace, but in the last 5 or 10 years there has been much discussion around accelerating climate impacts. This increase in hydroclimate whiplash, via the exponentially expanding atmospheric sponge, offers a potentially compelling explanation.”
That acceleration, and the anticipated increase in boom-and-bust water cycles, has important implications for water management.
“We can't look at just extreme rainfall or extreme droughts alone, because we have to safely manage these increasingly enormous influxes of water, while also preparing for progressively drier interludes,” Swain said. “That's why ‘co-management' is an important paradigm. It leads you to more holistic conclusions about which interventions and solutions are most appropriate, compared to considering drought and flood risk in isolation.”
In many regions, traditional management designs include shunting flood waters to flow quickly into the ocean, or slower solutions like allowing rain to percolate into the water table. However, taken alone, each option leaves cities vulnerable to the other side of climate whiplash, the researchers noted.
“Hydroclimate in California is reliably unreliable,” said co-author John Abatzoglou, a UC Merced climate scientist. “However, swings like we saw a couple years ago, going from one of the driest three-year periods in a century to the once-in-a-lifetime spring 2023 snowpack, both tested our water-infrastructure systems and furthered conversations about floodwater management to ensure future water security in an increasingly variable hydroclimate.”
Hydroclimate whiplash is projected to increase most across northern Africa, the Middle East, South Asia, northern Eurasia, the tropical Pacific and the tropical Atlantic, but most other regions will also feel the shift.
“Increasing hydroclimate whiplash may turn out to be one of the more universal global changes on a warming Earth,” Swain said.
In California this week, although winds are fanning the extreme fires, it's the whiplash-driven lack of rain that suspended Southern California in fire season.
“There's not really much evidence that climate change has increased or decreased the magnitude or likelihood of the wind events themselves in Southern California,” Swain said. “But climate change is increasing the overlap between extremely dry vegetation conditions later in the season and the occurrence of these wind events. This, ultimately, is the key climate change connection to Southern California wildfires.”
Under a high warming scenario, California will see an increase in both the wettest and driest years and seasons by later this century.
“The less warming there is, the less of an increase in hydroclimate whiplash we're going to see,” Swain said. “So anything that would reduce the amount of warming from climate change will directly slow or reduce the increase in whiplash. Yet we are currently still on a path to experience between 2 degrees and 3 degrees Celsius of global warming this century — so substantial further increases in whiplash are likely in our future, and we really need to be accounting for this in risk assessments and adaptation activities.”
The research was supported with funding from The Nature Conservancy of California and the Swiss National Science Foundation.
UC wildfire expert: Lack of rain ‘primary factor’ in L.A. fires
Siting, design of communities key to limiting catastrophic damage
Jan. 8 statement about wildfires in Southern California by Max Moritz, University of California Cooperative Extension statewide wildfire specialist based in Santa Barbara
“Santa Ana winds can be expected at this time of year, but this episode seems unusually strong. Some people are focusing on climate change and higher temperatures drying out the vegetation, but that's not really the primary factor here. It's the lack of rainfall that's unusual, and that's likely also related to climate change. More erratic and extreme precipitation patterns – drier dry periods and wetter wet periods – are extending the fire season. We still haven't started our typical fall and winter rains, and it's January! By this point of winter, usually it has rained so fuels contain more moisture and are not as flammable.”
How to prevent catastrophic wildfires?
“We can reduce the various sources of ignition, especially during red flag conditions, but we really need to treat wildfire as a public health concern and address it through urban planning.
We can retrofit existing communities to better withstand such events. Providing better water supply and distribution systems, hardening homes, establishing evacuation plans for communities, and training community members how to live with fire and reduce risks.
We should prepare for the inevitable by building and rebuilding differently, such as in the siting and design of communities in fire-prone environments. Placement of communities on the landscape, such as near bodies of water and agricultural buffers, and how they are laid out can minimize their exposure to wildfire. This goes well beyond structure-level building codes.”
Climate scientist Daniel Swain joins UC ANR
“We are very excited to have Daniel Swain join UC ANR,” said Glenda Humiston, UC vice president for agriculture and natural resources. “He brings a unique blend of skills and expertise that are crucial to meet the challenge of climate change, here in California and across the globe. Daniel's research – and his ability to clearly explain the latest findings in climate science – can equip fellow academics, policymakers and communities with the vital tools they need to forge effective and sustainable solutions.”
Swain is known for his exceptional science communication skills, explaining weather and climate in terms easily understood by the public.
“I spend a great deal of time engaging directly with the public in California and beyond on weather, climate and disaster-related topics, so I'm thrilled to be joining UC ANR—where broad dissemination of research-based information is a key part of the mission,” Swain said. “I'm grateful for ANR's support for my unusual hybrid climate research and science communication role, and look forward to helping expand ANR's virtual and statewide reach in the years to come.”
In November, Swain was named one of Vox's Future Perfect 50 – “the thinkers, activists and scholars working on solutions to today's (and tomorrow's) biggest problems.” Vox wrote: “Our communities and institutions are largely unequipped to fully understand, let alone deal with, the impacts of climate change. That's where climate experts should, theoretically, come in. But knowing the science is one thing – being able to effectively communicate it is a whole other ballpark. Climate scientist Daniel Swain is that desperately needed liaison.”
On his widely read Weather West blog, Swain has been sharing his perspectives on California weather and climate since 2006. He hosts regular “virtual office hours” for the public on YouTube. On X/Twitter, he has more than 101,000 followers.
The “Weather Whisperer” fields hundreds of calls from reporters every year and has been the single most-quoted expert in recent years at UCLA, where he was a climate scientist in the Institute of the Environment and Sustainability. Last year, when Swain was seeking institutional support that would allow him to do science communication as well as research, a Los Angeles Times columnist wrote, “I certainly rely on Swain and other scientists to tell environmental stories.”
The term "Ridiculously Resilient Ridge" was coined in 2013 by Swain on his Weather West blog to describe the large, formidable high-pressure mass that persisted over the West Coast during winter and diverted storms away from California, contributing to the state's 2013-2017 drought.
Before joining UC ANR, Swain, who grew up in the Bay Area, was at UCLA and held a concurrent appointment as a research fellow in the Capacity Center for Climate and Weather Extremes at the NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research since 2018. While holding a 100% appointment with UC ANR, he will maintain his associations with UCLA and NSF NCAR.
Swain holds a Ph.D. in Earth system science from Stanford University and a bachelor's degree in atmospheric science from UC Davis.
He will be the keynote speaker at the California Irrigation Institute's annual conference on Jan. 27 in Sacramento. His talk is titled “Drier and Wetter in 21st Century California? Managing Increasing Hydroclimate Whiplash in a Warming World.”
In addition to posting on his blog at weatherwest.com, Swain is also on Twitter/X @Weather_West, Bluesky https://bsky.app/profile/weatherwest.bsky.social, YouTube https://youtube.com/@weatherwest, Threads https://threads.net/@weather.west and Mastodon https://mastodon.social/@weatherwest.
Preparing soil for winter can protect soil health
Farmers placed clumps of soil into metal mesh baskets, submerged the baskets into jars of water, then watched to see if their soil held together. The slake test, conducted at the Soil Health Field Day in Woodland, measured soil health. Healthier soil, which contains more organic matter and bioactivity and can better support plant growth, stays intact.
“Participants said that it was particularly useful to see the slake test on a variety of soils to better understand the nuance of how soil health management practices such as cover cropping and reduction of tillage intensity could affect soil aggregation,” said Sonja Brodt, UC Sustainable Agriculture Research and Education Program coordinator for agriculture and environment, who attended the field day alongside Vivian Wauters, SAREP project scientist.
Technical assistance providers, farmers and other soil health professionals gathered at the Center for Land-Based Learning on Nov. 19 to learn about preparing soil for winter with a specific focus on how soil health impacts soil structure, as well as the ability for water to move through soil as opposed to puddling or running off a field.
“Soil with stable aggregates can withstand this submersion and stay intact, whereas a soil with poor aggregation will fall apart in the water,” Wauters explained.
This in-field test can produce dramatically different results, where poorly aggregated soil colors the water, while the stable, aggregated soil will leave the water column relatively clear.
Farmers were invited to bring their own soil samples to perform slake tests at the field day. Kabir Zahangir, USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service regional soil health specialist, compared soils from different management practices and discussed how to assess aggregate stability and soil water infiltration.
Attendees also heard from experienced growers Scott Park of Park Farming Organics and Andrew Brait of Full Belly Farm, who described how they assess soil health on their farms.
By collaborating with others, Brodt said farmers and researchers are achieving benefits through learning together in real time. “We will also be able to benefit from aggregating soils data from across regions to begin to develop a statewide soil health database, which is a critical step in order for researchers to be able to determine relationships between farming practices and soil health outcomes under California conditions in the future,” she said.
Slake tests can be performed on soil from one's own backyard, garden or farm to better understand the health of the soil. Additionally, the NRCS principles of soil health – minimized disturbance, maximized biodiversity, maximized soil cover and maximized living roots – can be applied across all scales, though the specific practices will vary based on the type of yard or farm as well as the local climate and soil type.
Brodt and Wauters, who coordinate the California Farm Demonstration Network, emphasize that it's important to have local examples of innovative conservation practices across the state so people can see what is working to protect and enhance the soil health in their specific region. They encourage farmers and technical assistance providers to visit https://www.calfarmdemo.org/ to find local farms that are showcasing innovative practices. Farmers interested in being a farm demonstration site are also encouraged to contact Brodt (sbbrodt@ucanr.edu) and Wauters (vwauters@ucanr.edu).
They hope to continue to support the learning and sharing of knowledge around climate-smart farming practices to help California's farmers adopt climate beneficial practices.
“CDFA has funding programs, such as their Healthy Soils grants, that farmers in our network can apply for to help cover the costs of implementing soil health practices,” Brodt said.
Current work on the California Farm Demonstration Network is funded through a University of California Office of the President Climate Action Grant.
Unique conditions in Modoc County drive organic agriculture adaptations
UC Organic Agriculture Institute visits area to hear innovations, needs of local producers
Modoc County, home to 8,500 people and tucked in the remote northeastern corner of California, has been a leader in advancing organic agriculture through its significant ranching and agronomic crop production, namely of potatoes and hay.
In fact, Modoc County is California's number one county for organic beef cattle production (119,782 acres in 2022), and consistently in the top five counties for total harvested certified organic acres in the state, according to the most recent California Department of Food and Agriculture statistics.
“Modoc County farmers and ranchers in many ways exemplify the values of organic agriculture, adapting and tailoring their operations to the contexts of the unique landscapes we live in,” said Laurie Wayne, University of California Cooperative Extension nutrition, community health and food systems advisor for Modoc, Siskiyou and Lassen counties.
This past summer, Wayne and Rob Wilson – UCCE farm advisor and director of the Intermountain Research and Extension Center operated by UC Agriculture and Natural Resources – shared their insights with a visiting team from the UC Organic Agriculture Institute.
Established in 2020 as an institute under UC ANR, OAI was created to develop research, extension and education support for certified, transitioning and aspiring organic farmers and ranchers across California. The OAI team has been visiting different regions to better understand the unique conditions of organic agriculture in those areas.
“These tours are our chance to build relationships with local farmers, partner organizations and colleagues and see how organic agriculture has grown and developed in that specific region,” said Houston Wilson, OAI director. “We also get to learn directly from farmers and ranchers about how regional contexts and community goals influence organic agriculture in their area.”
Modoc County's geography, climate spur adaptive strategies
Wayne, who previously operated a farm in Modoc County and also co-founded the Surprise Valley Saturday Farmer's Market and Modoc Harvest Food Hub, was the perfect person to introduce the OAI team to local agricultural producers.
“I hoped to show our visitors just a glimpse at the many lessons I've learned and inspiration I've gained from the agriculture community in Modoc,” Wayne said.
A common theme across Modoc County is the use of innovative and place-based strategies to farm within diverse ecosystems. For example, extensive rotational grazing is well-suited to the region's vast sage steppes, perennial grasslands and sagebrush ecosystems.
333 Ranch – a third-generation ranch in Lake City owned and operated by Sophie Sheppard, Lynn Nardella, and their son, Jason Diven – raises rotationally grazed beef cattle and calves, hogs and Icelandic sheep and grows organically managed vegetables.
Half of 333 Ranch is under conservation easement to preserve natural resources and wildlife. Their land stewardship practices include working with the Savory Institute – a nonprofit that supports the health of grasslands and the livelihoods of people on those landscapes – on ecological grazing techniques. They also partner with the USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service to convert barbed wire fencing into high tensile fencing for riparian habitat restoration. Sheppard reported that one year after the fence conversion, the ranchers saw nesting Greater Sandhill Cranes and beavers building dams in their creek.
Leah Larsen of Bidwell Canyon Farm in Fort Bidwell said she learned high tunnel production from Sheppard at 333 Ranch and others in the area. High tunnels allow farmers to extend their growing seasons to accommodate diverse crop rotations and opportunities for local food production.
Larsen – who grows vegetables, fruit trees and berries on 1.5 acres (including in two high tunnels) – also raises milk goats and chickens, maintains grazing pasture and operates a farmstay rental. With 11 years of experience farming in Modoc's high desert climate, Larsen offers mentorship to other growers in the region and shares information through channels such as the region's high tunnel Facebook group.
Canyon Creek Ranch in Alturas uses prescribed burns to manage invasive tree species in the sagebrush steppe. Richard (Dick) Mackey and his family operate 3,300 certified organic acres, with 350 head of cattle and 500 acres of hay, pasture and alfalfa. In addition to organic certification, Canyon Creek Ranch is also Ecological Outcome Verification (EOV)-certified; EOV is a program of the Savory Institute that gathers ecosystem data to verify that ranching practices are regenerating the land.
Mackey, whose family has owned and operated the ranch since 1946, brought the OAI team to an area of their property that is managed with fire, demonstrating how their agroecological stewardship has improved the land and suppressed invasive species.
“It was remarkable to see the difference ecological management such as prescribed burning and targeted grazing can make in promoting both healthy ecosystems and more productive organic agricultural systems,” said Krista Marshall, OAI policy and partnerships coordinator. “I feel incredibly grateful to have gotten the opportunity to learn from the innovative and thoughtful farmers and ranchers across Modoc County about how we can accomplish multiple goals in agroecosystems.”
Another example of ecological and agricultural goals being met simultaneously can be found at Tule Lake, where rotations incorporate a wetland wildlife refuge and crop production. Rob Wilson noted that this “Walking Wetlands” program has benefited organic producers with good pest and disease control from the flooded years in the rotation.
“The Walking Wetlands program is a great example of public and private land managers working together to meet land use objectives,” said Wilson, the UCCE farm advisor. “The program results in hundreds of acres of restored marshland habitat for migrating waterfowl each year, while providing organic potato and small grain growers with productive farmland largely devoid of soilborne pathogens and nematode pests.”
Farm labor support, meat processing infrastructure investment needed in region
All ranchers on the OAI tour commented on the lack of U.S. Department of Agriculture-accredited meat processors in the county. Ranchers explained that they must transport animals hundreds of miles to other counties or across state lines to access facilities.
Jon and Kelsey Arreche of Cow Creek Meat, Inc. at Arreche Farms in Cedarville said that the year-long wait lists for processing complicates planning.
The Arreches manage 1,300 acres of pasture, alfalfa, wheat, barley and hay and raise 110 grass-fed and grass-fed/grain-finished beef cattle, as well as hogs, lamb and poultry. Cow Creek Meat was certified organic for 12 years and continues to farm organically despite not pursuing certification currently.
Jon Arreche commented that prices for commodities like alfalfa are not stable but rather fluctuate between organic and non-organic markets, with some years offering a better premium than others. He said that they may pursue certification again in the future.
“Greater investment in processing infrastructure and the need for organic market development are two concerns we heard consistently on the tour,” said Shriya Rangarajan, a postdoctoral researcher with OAI. “We have to ensure the long-term economic viability for these local ranchers.”
The remoteness of Modoc County also has contributed to labor challenges for farmers and ranchers across the region. Some growers have pursued hosting farm apprenticeships or internships, through programs like World Wide Opportunities on Organic Farms (WWOOF) or through direct hire.
Bidwell Canyon Farm has a farm internship program, which helps with labor on the farm and also contributes to mentoring and teaching the next generation of farmers. There was widespread interest in developing training programs, akin to Rogue Farm Corps in Oregon, to link beginning farmer apprentices with host mentor farmers.
“Hands-on experience working on farms is the best way to inspire and train the next generation of farmers,” said Marshall. “Farmers in Modoc are already creating these types of apprenticeship programs on their farms, so network and capacity building to support these efforts would benefit the agricultural community.”
Markets often dictate whether organic certification is useful
The number of certified organic farms and ranches in Modoc County declined from 34 in 2018 to 19 in 2022, according to CDFA statistics. The OAI visitors learned from growers in the region that markets often dictated if formal certification made business sense for their organically managed operations.
Kay and Erik Antunez de Mayolo grow vegetables, herbs, berries and natural dye plants on a quarter-acre and heritage apples, peaches and other fruit trees on an additional three acres at Oz Garden in Eagleville. They manage their farm organically, but are not certified. Kay Antunez de Mayolo, who markets produce and value-added goods at the Surprise Valley Farmers Market in Cedarville and the Alturas Farmers Market, also contributes to the Modoc Harvest Food Hub.
Most Modoc growers, certified or not, know their customers through direct sales and build trust around the integrity of their operations. Many farmers and ranchers ultimately don't see the financial benefit of certification because of these direct relationships with their customers – especially given the certification cost and administrative effort required.
While cost-share programs for organic certification fees exist (such as the USDA Organic Certification Cost Share Program), applying for and maintaining certification status takes valuable time – in addition to direct financial outlay.
Modoc growers contribute to conserving plant diversity
The lively local food and farming community in Modoc County also includes smaller-scale vegetable and fruit farms; the State Organic Program reported 1,281 organic vegetable acres in Modoc in 2023. Modoc fruit and vegetable growers are conserving heritage crops on farm and preserving unique plant varieties while producing food for the community.
At Oz Garden, the apple trees are over 125 years old. Through the Modoc Harvest Heritage Fruit Tree Project, Kay Antunez de Mayolo and others work to identify these cultivars through research and DNA fingerprinting at the UC Davis Genetics Lab. Oz Garden grows diverse plant varieties, including the “Old Fashioned Surprise Valley Tomato,” a locally adapted beefsteak variety stewarded by Modoc resident June Perry.
Bidwell Canyon Farm introduced the OAI team to honeyberries, also known as Haskap berries, which look like an elongated blueberry but have a distinct honeyed flavor and produce well in Modoc County.
“That bit of honeyberry was symbolic of the entire tour – a small but memorable taste of the richness and diversity of Modoc County organic agriculture,” Marshall said. “We are so grateful to Laurie and all the farmers and ranchers for taking the time to share their experiences and feedback with us.”
