Posts Tagged: Colin Carter

A U.S.-China trade war would cost California farmers

Loss of China's preferred trade status could hurt crop, dairy and livestock exports

The Biden administration recently announced large, increased tariff rates for Chinese electric vehicles, solar cells, semiconductors, and aluminum and steel products. This raises the possibility of another trade war with China that could impact agriculture. 

Economists from UC Davis and North Dakota State University evaluated the potential implications of the U.S. revoking China's Permanent Normal Trade Relations (PNTR) status. They found that if China retaliated against a change in China's PNTR status, it could lead to a 9.5% increase in China's agricultural import tariffs, resulting in potential trade losses to California agriculture of around $1 billion annually.

California agriculture was hit hard by the 2018-19 trade war with China, and many industries have still not recovered from its effects. Despite this, there is increasing support in Congress for further restrictions on trade with China, with proponents asserting that China is not complying with the World Trade Organization's regulations.

The authors' research suggests that some product groups – such as horticultural products, dairy, livestock and meats – would likely experience even steeper than average increases in import tariffs.

“The impact on import tariffs for non-agricultural sectors would be even larger, with the average import tariff going up from 3.9% to 32.5%,” said co-author of the study Colin A. Carter, Distinguished Professor in the Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics at UC Davis. 

For all California agricultural exports, they estimated an average decline in export value between 28.4% and 34.8% when comparing a scenario where China's PNTR status is revoked to one where it is not. This translates into an estimated trade loss of between $800 million and $1 billion, using 2023 California agricultural exports. Some crops that rely heavily on China for exports, such as tree nuts, would be more severely impacted by these effects, particularly considering that some of them are still subjected to residual tariffs from the 2018-19 trade war.

The last trade war between the United States and China led to significant decreases in crop prices and lost export opportunities. As co-author Sandro Steinbach, Associate Professor in the Department of Agribusiness and Applied Economics and the Director of the Center for Agricultural Policy and Trade Studies at North Dakota State University notes, “Once access to a market is lost, gaining it back is difficult, as the 2018-19 trade war has shown.” 

To learn more about the potential implications of the United States revoking China's preferred trade status, read the full article by Carter and Steinbach: “Revoking China's Preferred Trade Status Would Be Costly for California Agriculture,” ARE Update 27(4): 1–4. UC Giannini Foundation of Agricultural Economics, online at https://giannini.ucop.edu/filer/file/1715033514/20982/.

ARE Update is a bimonthly magazine published by the Giannini Foundation of Agricultural Economics to educate policymakers and agribusiness professionals about new research or analysis of important topics in agricultural and resource economics. Articles are written by Giannini Foundation members, including University of California faculty and Cooperative Extension specialists in agricultural and resource economics, and university graduate students. Learn more about the Giannini Foundation and its publications at https://giannini.ucop.edu/.

Global food security threatened by grain export disruptions

Wheat and corn prices have spiked after Russian aggression in the Black Sea

The Russian invasion of Ukraine in early 2022 caused wheat and corn prices to spike 30% and 13%, respectively, and threatened a worldwide food crisis. International efforts to mitigate a food security crisis via the Solidarity Lanes and the Black Sea Grain Initiative (BSGI) have successfully allowed grain exports out of Ukraine. However, Russia's recent withdrawal from the BSGI, coupled with increased bombings of Odesa and Danube River ports, caused another price spike for these grains. Further aggression in the region risks halting Russian wheat and Ukrainian corn exports across the Black Sea, the main export channel for both countries.

Russia accounts for about 18% of global wheat exports and 2% of worldwide corn exports, while Ukraine provides 15% of global corn exports and only 9% of wheat. Why have these statistics spooked the grain commodity markets? 

“The simple answer is that Russia's aggression in the Black Sea region increases the risk of the world grain market losing the number four corn exporter, Ukraine, and the number one wheat exporter, Russia, if grain vessels on the Black Sea become targets of drone strikes,” said Colin A. Carter, Distinguished Professor of Agricultural and Resource Economics at the University of California, Davis. If all grain shipped through the Black Sea by Russia and Ukraine were halted, it would cut off 27% of global wheat exports and 17% of global corn exports.

Analysis of the corn and wheat markets by Carter and Sandro Steinbach, associate professor in the Department of Agribusiness and Applied Economics and the Director of the Center for Agricultural Policy and Trade Studies at North Dakota State University, shows a notable increase in market uncertainty since the start of the Russia-Ukraine War, as evidenced by measuring "implied volatility." Implied volatility is the expected price volatility of a commodity like corn or wheat in options trading. In March of 2022, shortly after the invasion of Ukraine, the implied volatility of corn jumped from 25% to 60%, while wheat rose from 40% to 160%. There was also a second peak in volatility in July 2023, after Russia pulled out of the BSGI, suggesting further fears that grain exports through the Black Sea could be cut off from world markets.

When Russia withdrew from the BSGI, there was another brief price spike in wheat (up 15%) and corn (up 10%). Wheat markets have been consistently more affected by conflict in Ukraine, specifically in the Black Sea, than corn prices. This difference can be explained by the fact that 95% of Russian grain is exported through the eastern portion of the Black Sea, while around a quarter of Ukrainian grain is shipped by truck and rail and would not be as affected by the conflict in the Black Sea. By volume, there is around 1.7 times more wheat than corn shipped from Black Sea ports. The wheat market is more politically charged than the corn market because wheat is primarily a food grain. Therefore, the greatest risk to global food security moving forward may no longer be getting grain out of Ukraine – due to the continued success of the Solidarity Lanes – but rather the loss of wheat exports to the world market that could result from Russia backing out of the Black Sea Grain Initiative. 

To learn more about how Russian aggression in the Black Sea might affect global food security, read the full article by Carter and Steinbach, “Russian Weaponization of Food Rattles Global Markets,” ARE Update 26(6): 1–4. UC Giannini Foundation of Agricultural Economics, online at https://giannini.ucop.edu/filer/file/1694637435/20778/.

ARE Update is a bimonthly magazine published by the Giannini Foundation of Agricultural Economics to educate policymakers and agribusiness professionals about new research or analysis of important topics in agricultural and resource economics. Articles are written by Giannini Foundation members, including University of California faculty and Cooperative Extension specialists in agricultural and resource economics, and university graduate students. Learn more about the Giannini Foundation and its publications at https://giannini.ucop.edu/.

Climate-Change Resources

University of California UC ANR Green Blog (Climate Change and Other Topics) https://ucanr.edu/blogs/Green/index.cfm?tagname=climate%20change (full index)

Examples:

     -  Save Trees First: Tips to Keep Them Alive Under Drought https://ucanr.edu/b/~CdD 

     - Landscaping with Fire Exposure in Mind: https://ucanr.edu/b/~G4D

     - Cities in California Inland Areas Must Make Street Tree Changes to adapt to Future Climate  https://ucanr.edu/b/~oF7

Drought, Climate Change and California Water Management Ted Grantham, UC Cooperative Extension specialist (23 minutes) https://youtu.be/dlimj75Wn9Q

Climate Variability and Change: Trends and Impacts on CA Agriculture Tapan Pathak, UC Cooperative Extension specialist (24 minutes) https://youtu.be/bIHI0yqqQJc

California Institute for Water Resources (links to blogs, talks, podcasts, water experts, etc.) https://ciwr.ucanr.edu/California_Drought_Expertise/

UC ANR Wildfire Resources (publications, videos, etc.) https://ucanr.edu/News/For_the_media/Press_kits/Wildfire/ (main website)

      -UC ANR Fire Resources and Information https://ucanr.edu/sites/fire/ (main website)

            -Preparing Home Landscaping https://ucanr.edu/sites/fire/Prepare/Landscaping/

UC ANR Free Publications https://anrcatalog.ucanr.edu/ (main website)

- Benefits of Plants to Humans and Urban Ecosystems: https://anrcatalog.ucanr.edu/pdf/8726.pdf

 -Keeping Plants Alive Under Drought and Water Restrictions (English version) https://anrcatalog.ucanr.edu/pdf/8553.pdf

  (Spanish version) https://anrcatalog.ucanr.edu/pdf/8628.pdf

-  Use of Graywater in Urban Landscapes https://anrcatalog.ucanr.edu/pdf/8536.pdf

-  Sustainable Landscaping in California https://anrcatalog.ucanr.edu/pdf/8504.pdf

 

Other (Non-UC) Climate Change Resources

Urban Forests and Climate Change. Urban forests play an important role in climate change mitigation and adaptation. Active stewardship of a community's forestry assets can strengthen local resilience to climate change while creating more sustainable and desirable places to live. https://www.fs.usda.gov/ccrc/topics/urban-forests

Examining the Viability of Planting Trees to Mitigate Climate Change (plausible at the forest level) https://climate.nasa.gov/news/2927/examining-the-viability-of-planting-trees-to-help-mitigate-climate-change/

Reports and other information resources coordinated under the auspices of the United Nations and produced through the collaboration of thousands of international scientists to provide a clear and up to date view of the current state of scientific knowledge relevant to climate change. United Nations Climate Action

Scientific reports, programs, action movements and events related to climate change. National Center for Atmospheric Research (National Science Foundation)

Find useful reports, program information and other documents resulting from federally funded research and development into the behavior of the atmosphere and related physical, biological and social systems. Search and find climate data from prehistory through to an hour ago in the world's largest climate data archive. (Formerly the "Climatic Data Center") National Centers for Environmental Information (NOAA)

Think tank providing information, analysis, policy and solution development for addressing climate change and energy issues (formerly known as the: "Pew Center on Global Climate Change"). Center for Climate & Energy Solutions (C2ES)

Mapping Resilience: A Blueprint for Thriving in the Face of Climate Disaster. The Climate Adaptation Knowledge Exchange (CAKE) was launched in July 2010 and is managed by EcoAdapt, a non-profit with a singular mission: to create a robust future in the face of climate change by bringing together diverse players to reshape planning and management in response to rapid climate change. https://www.cakex.org/documents/mapping-resilience-blueprint-thriving-face-climate-disaster

Cal-Adapt provides a way to explore peer-reviewed data that portrays how climate change might affect California at the state and local level. We make this data available through downloads, visualizations, and the Cal-Adapt API for your research, outreach, and adaptation planning needs. Cal-Adapt is a collaboration between state agency funding programs, university and private sector researchers https://cal-adapt.org/

Find reports, maps, data and other resources produced through a confederation of the research arms of 13 Federal departments and agencies that carry out research and develop and maintain capabilities that support the Nation's response to global change. Global Change (U.S. Global Change Research Program)

The Pacific Institute is a global water think tank that combines science-based thought leadership with active outreach to influence local, national, and international efforts to develop sustainable water policies. https://pacinst.org/our-approach/

Making equity real in climate adaptation and community resilience policies and programs: a guidebook. https://greenlining.org/publications/2019/making-equity-real-in-climate-adaption-and-community-resilience-policies-and-programs-a-guidebook/ 

Quarterly CA Climate Updates and CA Drought Monitor Maps (updated each Thursday) https://www.drought.gov/documents/quarterly-climate-impacts-and-outlook-western-region-june-2022

 

 

 

 

Drought focus of Water Resources IMPACT magazine special issue

UC ANR experts address emotional toll of drought

Preparing the American West for prolonged drought is the focus of a double issue of Water Resources IMPACT magazine. The California Water Commission staff are guest editors for this special open-access edition of the magazine, which is published by the American Water Resources Association.   

Faith Kearns, academic coordinator of University of California Agriculture and Natural Resources' California Institute for Water Resources, is among the authors delving into how drought impacts people and the environment and how we can better prepare for the inevitable. 

The first issue, published on Feb. 14, focuses on water scarcity issues confronting California and the ways these issues affect different sectors. 

In “Trauma, Care, and Solidarity: Addressing the Emotional Toll of Chronic Drought,” Kearns highlights the effects of drought on mental health. She points to the spike in suicide hotline calls when wells ran dry in Southeast Asian communities in California's Central Valley.

By listening to Southeast Asian farmers, Ruth Dahlquist-Willard and Michael Yang of UC Cooperative Extension were able to “lighten the load” for them by providing pragmatic support, Kearns writes.

“The scale of some of these highly emotional issues – drought, wildfires, climate change – can make them seem incredibly difficult, if not impossible, to deal with,” Kearns said. “At the same time, they are affecting everyone living in the western U.S. on a daily basis. I wanted to highlight and provide models based on work that people – whether they are researchers, clinical psychologists, or Cooperative Extension advisors – are doing right now to ease the way.”

The authors who contributed to the double issue are a diverse array of Tribal experts, academics, nongovernmental organization thought-leaders, water managers and water policy influencers, each of whom brings their own perspective on the topic of drought. Their expertise and perspectives in climate science, water policy and water management will help inform drought-related decision-making and support policies that better prepare the state to thrive during periods of prolonged water scarcity.

In addition to Kearns, the first issue includes articles contributed by:

• Samantha Stevenson, University of California, Santa Barbara
• Jay Lund, University of California, Davis
• Ron Goode, North Fork Mono Tribe
• Andy Fecko, Placer County Water Agency
• Jeff Mount, Public Policy Institute of California, and Ted Grantham, University of California, Berkeley/UC Cooperative Extension
• Nat Seavy and Karyn Stockdale, National Audubon Society
• Kjia Rivers, Community Water Center
• Cannon Michael, Bowles Farming
• Michelle Reimers, Turlock Irrigation District

The January/February edition of Water Resources IMPACT magazine can be accessed, free of charge, on the American Water Resources Association website at https://www.awra.org under “Publications.”

The second issue, to be published in March, will focus on drought response, considering the options for adaptation. This two-part series complements the Commission's work on strategies to protect communities and fish and wildlife in the event of a long-term drought.

 

 

Your water-efficient landscape doesn’t have to be barren

UC climate-ready landscape trials identify low-water yet attractive plants

Good news: roses can be a part of your water-efficient landscape. Lorence Oki, UC Cooperative Extension environmental horticulture specialist in the UC Davis Department of Plant Sciences, identified rose cultivars that remain aesthetically pleasing with little water.  

Oki is the principal investigator of the Climate-Ready Landscape Plants project, which may be the largest irrigation trial in the western U.S., and the UC Plant Landscape Irrigation Trials (UCLPIT), the California component of that project. These projects evaluate landscape plants under varying irrigation levels to determine their optimal performance in regions requiring supplemental summer water.

“There are some assumptions that pretty plants use a lot of water, like roses,” Oki said. “Everyone thinks they need a lot of water, but we've found some that don't, and they still look great. A water-efficient landscape doesn't need to look like a Central Valley oak-grassland in the summer. It can look really attractive.”

In 2021, Oki's team at UC Davis identified Lomandra confertifolia ssp. pallida "Pom Pom" Shorty and Rosa "Sprogreatpink" Brick House® Pink as two of the best low-water plants in the trial. 

“The useful tip or information that is shared at the end of each trial is the selection and designation of plants as Blue Ribbon winners. These are the plants that looked good with an overall rating of 4 or higher throughout and were on the low (20%) water treatment,” said Natalie Levy, associate specialist for water resources, who manages the project at the UC ANR South Coast Research and Extension Center.

How plants earn a blue ribbon

Each trial year, the selection of new plants is based on research recommendations and donated submissions from the nursery industry. The landscape plants are trialed in full sun or 50% shade cover.

Irrigation treatments are based on the rate of evaporation and plant transpiration (evapotranspiration) measured through a local California Irrigation Management Information System (CIMIS) weather station that provides a reference evapotranspiration (ETo) rate.

Three levels of irrigation are provided to the plants equal to 20%, 50%, and 80% of ETo. The volume of water applied is the same at each irrigation based on soil characteristics, but the interval between applications varies with weather and the treatment. Using this method, irrigations for the 20% treatment are less frequent than the 80% treatment.

“The 20% treatment during the 2022 trial was irrigated an average of once per month while the 80% treatment was irrigated weekly,” explained Levy.

During the deficit irrigation trial, monthly height and width measurements are taken to determine the plant growth index. Monthly qualitative aesthetic ratings on a scale of 1 to 5 are determined for foliage appearance, flowering abundance, pest tolerance, disease resistance, vigor and overall appearance.

A second round of flowering abundance and overall appearance measurements are also taken to capture more of the blooming period. For example, UCLPIT identified in the 2020 trial at South Coast REC that the "Apricot Drift" rose had a mean overall appearance score of 3.5 out of 5, deeming it “acceptable to very nice” and a low water use plant within the Water Use Classification of Landscape Species or WUCOLS guide.

Project expands options for landscape planting

While attending UC Davis as a master's student, Karrie Reid, retired UCCE environmental horticulture advisor for San Joaquin County, assisted Oki with landscape water conservation research. The landscape plant irrigation assessments were initiated at UC Davis in 2004 and the UCLPIT project, now in its 20^th year, originated from her master's thesis project from 2005 to 2007. A CDFA grant supported duplicating these fields at the South Coast REC in 2017.

“(WUCOLS) only has 3,500 plants in it. There are guesses that there are close to 10,000 cultivars in urban landscapes in California, if not more,” said Oki. “WUCOLS also didn't have numerical ratings. Instead, you'll see verbal ratings like ‘low water use' or ‘high water use.'”

The UCLPIT project has not only developed numerical recommendations for irrigation, but it has also added new landscape plants that are compliant with California's Model Water Efficient Landscape Ordinance. In fact, UCLPIT's data is one of the few sources that can be used to supplement WUCOLS.

Geographic diversity of trial sites adds to knowledge base

In addition to UC Davis and South Coast REC in Irvine, the trials have expanded beyond California as the Climate-Ready Landscape Plants project and is in progress at Oregon State University, University of Washington, University of Arizona and Utah State University thanks to a USDA/CDFA grant awarded in 2020.

Lloyd Nackley, associate professor of nursery production and greenhouse management at Oregon State University, is the principal investigator of the trial in the Portland metro area, which is entering its third year.

“People know that there are drought tolerant plants, but there are many. We're trying to highlight lesser known or newer varieties. And even though the trial is three years, most gardeners would hope that their garden lasts longer than that,” said Nackley.

One of the observations that Nackley recalls is of the Hibiscus Purple Pillar plant. Unlike the trial at South Coast, the Purple Pillar did not perform well in Oregon in the spring.

“It wasn't until August that we saw the plant bloom and begin to look like what we saw from South Coast in April,” Nackley said.

Ursula Schuch, horticulture professor and principal investigator of the trial taking place at the University of Arizona, was also surprised at the range of performance among different plant types and the effects of irrigation, heat and temperature.

“This research will reassure green industry professionals that they can stretch their water budget to successfully cultivate more plants, watering them according to their needs instead of irrigating every plant according to the highest water-using plants,” said Schuch.

Although research is only conducted in the West, the hope is that there will be trials in other regions of U.S.

Doing so would yield comprehensive information about the plants and their performance in different climates. As extreme weather events persist in the U.S., disease pressure and risks do too. Trials throughout the country would provide location-specific data regarding disease susceptibility. 

To learn more about the UCLPIT research project, visit https://ucanr.edu/sites/UCLPIT/

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